{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9e528985-3fbc-457a-afa7-f0916724f30b", "symbol": "CHP", "name": "Caledonian Holdings PLC", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.878, "architecture_energy": 53.234, "architecture_maturity": 61.82, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 4.89, "rotation_up": 25.31, "upward_expansion": 8.61, "deceleration": 55.2, "rotation_down": 56.54, "downward_expansion": 84.27 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.0169, 0.017855, 0.021898, 0.026027 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.0165, "trend_reference": 0.030513, "distance_from_trend": -0.459253, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.082983, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.801165, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -53.843308, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.5875, "excess_performance": -0.638735, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.459253, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.191985, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.801165, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.115048, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.538433, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.306836, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.5875, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.062154, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 633143, "relative_activity": 0.316233, "balance": 0.062154, "dry_up": 0.427468, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.350583, "annualized_volatility": 0.784311, "from_high_reference": -0.725, "from_low_reference": 0.1 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.030513, "fair_value_reference": 0.082983, "structural_low": 0.015, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 40, "median_return": -0.054887, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.575, "median_excess_return": -0.067367, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 0.666667, "worst_return": -0.333333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.189041, "positive_rate": 0.214286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.193462, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.333333, "worst_return": -0.366667, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.315789, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.358566, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.166667, "worst_return": -0.479452, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.396154, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.439171, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.333333, "worst_return": -0.643836, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-09-29", "end": "2023-10-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.090909, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-10-27", "end": "2023-11-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.058824, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-11-17", "end": "2023-12-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.588235, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-12-22", "end": "2024-01-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.230769, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-01-19", "end": "2024-02-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.2, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-02-23", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.533333, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.285714, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.333333, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.25, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false 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0.0179, 0.020285, 0.025403, 0.028976 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.0175, "volume": 590881, "typical_volume": 2053041.65, "trend": 0.03208, "fair_value": 0.085208, "relative_strength": -51.3146, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.890929, "energy": 70.179398, "activity_lines": [ 0.017467, 0.019378, 0.02419, 0.027987 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.0165, "volume": 896353, "typical_volume": 2058308.8, "trend": 0.031297, "fair_value": 0.084224, "relative_strength": -54.182671, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.541051, "energy": 64.532183, "activity_lines": [ 0.017167, 0.018516, 0.022988, 0.026982 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.0165, "volume": 633143, "typical_volume": 2002138.35, "trend": 0.030513, "fair_value": 0.082983, "relative_strength": -53.843308, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.878044, "energy": 53.234446, "activity_lines": [ 0.0169, 0.017855, 0.021898, 0.026027 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }