{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9e53d038-694e-4211-803b-b016a590e770", "symbol": "9565", "name": "Meyar Company", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -56.879, "architecture_energy": 56.889, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.38, "rotation_up": 15.68, "upward_expansion": 11.76, "deceleration": 40.64, "rotation_down": 55.65, "downward_expansion": 80.43 }, "activity_lines": [ 27.833333, 28.307636, 29.174762, 29.907527 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 28.5, "trend_reference": 30.92, "distance_from_trend": -0.078266, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 59.140256, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.518095, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.617028, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.16275, "excess_performance": -0.13092, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.078266, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.087439, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.518095, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.031722, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.20617, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.045646, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.16275, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.070202, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 368, "relative_activity": 0.160583, "balance": 0.070202, "dry_up": 0.342221, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.067099, "annualized_volatility": 0.483009, "from_high_reference": -0.516949, "from_low_reference": 0.096154 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 30.92, "fair_value_reference": 59.140256, "structural_low": 26.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.030303, "positive_rate": 0.133333, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.035605, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.153846, "worst_return": -0.175, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.18886, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.171596, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.0, "worst_return": -0.296296, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.312316, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.305125, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.211053, "worst_return": -0.41358, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, 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"start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.016667, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.560185, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-04", "close": 90.599998, "volume": 9917, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2023-08-11", "close": 87.199997, "volume": 26759, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 88.199997, "volume": 23246, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, 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"down", "direction": -76.920704, "energy": 57.05314, "activity_lines": [ 27.866667, 28.311636, 29.338381, 30.071183 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 28.5, "volume": 368, "typical_volume": 2291.65, "trend": 30.92, "fair_value": 59.140256, "relative_strength": -20.617028, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.879315, "energy": 56.88866, "activity_lines": [ 27.833333, 28.307636, 29.174762, 29.907527 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }