{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9e57c58e-8ca8-4784-abf8-0d32006bf50a", "symbol": "CTAX3", "name": "Contax Participa\u00e7\u00f5es S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.936, "architecture_energy": 51.873, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 94.837, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.74, "rotation_up": 26.94, "upward_expansion": 8.29, "deceleration": 60.79, "rotation_down": 54.32, "downward_expansion": 83.96 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.458889, 1.482424, 1.680635, 1.905089 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 1.81, "trend_reference": 2.233666, "distance_from_trend": -0.189673, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.239166, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.654525, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -39.791518, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.409782, "excess_performance": -0.352734, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.189673, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.21442, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.654525, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.030702, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.397915, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.08727, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.409782, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.512149, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 69200, "relative_activity": 3.959943, "balance": 0.512149, "dry_up": 1.85794, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.162204, "annualized_volatility": 0.899855, "from_high_reference": -0.558537, "from_low_reference": 1.129412 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.233666, "fair_value_reference": 5.239166, "structural_low": 0.85, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 43, "median_return": -0.050459, "positive_rate": 0.27907, "directional_follow_through": 0.627907, "median_excess_return": -0.061111, "regime_survival": 0.906977, "best_return": 0.863637, "worst_return": -0.465, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.121027, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.139233, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.957895, "worst_return": -0.557692, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.267491, "positive_rate": 0.125, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": -0.346099, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 2.421053, "worst_return": -0.48, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-09-29", "end": "2024-01-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.156, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-01-26", "end": "2024-03-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.127869, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-03-22", "end": "2024-04-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.170833, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-04-12", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.449541, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.185484, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": 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-75.383751, "energy": 69.139879, "activity_lines": [ 1.522222, 1.655757, 1.91492, 2.148243 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.4, "volume": 4410, "typical_volume": 13461.0, "trend": 2.401111, "fair_value": 5.348504, "relative_strength": -56.303515, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.329514, "energy": 67.500724, "activity_lines": [ 1.457778, 1.587879, 1.842857, 2.079785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.4, "volume": 10860, "typical_volume": 13609.5, "trend": 2.338889, "fair_value": 5.309829, "relative_strength": -55.543691, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.831019, "energy": 66.433998, "activity_lines": [ 1.428889, 1.532727, 1.777936, 2.015197 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.1, "volume": 45400, "typical_volume": 14738.0, "trend": 2.277778, "fair_value": 5.270726, "relative_strength": -65.133546, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -86.34018, "energy": 77.305287, "activity_lines": [ 1.311111, 1.434545, 1.691587, 1.935269 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.81, "volume": 69200, "typical_volume": 17475.0, "trend": 2.233666, "fair_value": 5.239166, "relative_strength": -39.791518, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.936373, "energy": 51.872615, "activity_lines": [ 1.458889, 1.482424, 1.680635, 1.905089 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }