{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9e5eb7a8-2279-45dd-a848-1c665d81fce6", "symbol": "2801", "name": "iShares Asia Trust - iShares Core MSCI China Index ETF", "exchange": "HKG", "country": "HK", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^HSI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 86.768, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -16.092, "architecture_energy": 18.068, "architecture_maturity": 99.409, "architecture_confidence": 62.541, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.84, "rotation_up": 35.75, "upward_expansion": 20.68, "deceleration": 44.09, "rotation_down": 18.93, "downward_expansion": 54.68 }, "activity_lines": [ 24.384, 23.949091, 24.219048, 24.564774 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 25.059999, "trend_reference": 25.188667, "distance_from_trend": -0.005108, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 22.445855, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.116464, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.631829, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.061423, "excess_performance": -0.027842, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.005108, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.041236, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.116464, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.050967, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.036318, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001889, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.061423, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.561048, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 915782, "relative_activity": 0.523194, "balance": 0.561048, "dry_up": 0.764963, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.040027, "annualized_volatility": 0.173837, "from_high_reference": -0.147294, "from_low_reference": 0.133937 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.188667, "fair_value_reference": 22.445855, "structural_low": 22.1, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.01014, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.002677, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.064292, "worst_return": -0.061175, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.052262, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.022909, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.052262, "worst_return": -0.052262, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": 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"modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.588147, "energy": 75.940674, "activity_lines": [ 23.264001, 23.720364, 24.36381, 24.865333 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 23.58, "volume": 1220912, "typical_volume": 1806585.05, "trend": 25.454667, "fair_value": 22.399577, "relative_strength": -5.532565, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.824782, "energy": 57.680541, "activity_lines": [ 23.334667, 23.608364, 24.249143, 24.737721 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 23.84, "volume": 2112582, "typical_volume": 1782727.4, "trend": 25.360667, "fair_value": 22.410489, "relative_strength": -5.927792, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.488379, "energy": 40.505532, "activity_lines": [ 23.54, 23.587637, 24.172476, 24.633549 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 24.5, "volume": 1106593, "typical_volume": 1762420.8, "trend": 25.265333, "fair_value": 22.4262, "relative_strength": -6.647783, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.369137, "energy": 21.48898, "activity_lines": [ 23.945333, 23.714546, 24.166381, 24.578022 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 25.059999, "volume": 915782, "typical_volume": 1750368.15, "trend": 25.188667, "fair_value": 22.445855, "relative_strength": -3.631829, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -16.09151, "energy": 18.068096, "activity_lines": [ 24.384, 23.949091, 24.219048, 24.564774 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }