{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9e609ade-54d1-49f4-a803-b1e3d1d534fb", "symbol": "SUK1", "name": "WisdomTree FTSE 100 1x Daily Short", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 94.845, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -79.159, "architecture_energy": 80.101, "architecture_maturity": 13.155, "architecture_confidence": 79.675, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.22, "rotation_up": 9.59, "upward_expansion": 17.38, "deceleration": 37.19, "rotation_down": 78.95, "downward_expansion": 93.04 }, "activity_lines": [ 3713.5, 3747.327273, 3783.638095, 3802.897849 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 3674.0, "trend_reference": 3824.85, "distance_from_trend": -0.039439, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4410.864474, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.167057, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.628554, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.046334, "excess_performance": -0.097569, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.039439, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.023451, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.167057, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.0347, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.146286, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.035225, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.046334, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.767706, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5348, "relative_activity": 0.778083, "balance": 0.767706, "dry_up": 0.712212, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.016932, "annualized_volatility": 0.150844, "from_high_reference": -0.143345, "from_low_reference": 0.0063 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3824.85, "fair_value_reference": 4410.864474, "structural_low": 3651.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 39, "median_return": -0.006689, "positive_rate": 0.358974, "directional_follow_through": 0.641026, "median_excess_return": -0.012927, "regime_survival": 0.820513, "best_return": 0.092724, "worst_return": -0.063262, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.010314, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.01691, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.048022, "worst_return": -0.098829, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.052902, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.113678, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.083177, "worst_return": -0.107979, 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3852.933333, "fair_value": 4430.832423, "relative_strength": -11.291209, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.259527, "energy": 51.697255, "activity_lines": [ 3789.7, 3803.909091, 3822.252381, 3830.864516 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3733.0, "volume": 3339, "typical_volume": 9604.2, "trend": 3843.283333, "fair_value": 4424.790756, "relative_strength": -13.075606, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.472096, "energy": 64.012657, "activity_lines": [ 3767.933333, 3788.436364, 3811.847619, 3823.126882 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3689.0, "volume": 903, "typical_volume": 7943.45, "trend": 3833.266667, "fair_value": 4417.918961, "relative_strength": -14.583749, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.692349, "energy": 68.148841, "activity_lines": [ 3739.566667, 3768.236364, 3797.983333, 3813.173118 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3674.0, "volume": 5348, "typical_volume": 6873.3, "trend": 3824.85, "fair_value": 4410.864474, "relative_strength": -14.628554, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.15908, "energy": 80.101322, "activity_lines": [ 3713.5, 3747.327273, 3783.638095, 3802.897849 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }