{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9e63a757-12ea-4932-af96-460c937a2ff5", "symbol": "XWUS", "name": "Xtrackers MSCI World Utilities UCITS ETF 1C", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 87.938, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -18.922, "architecture_energy": 12.064, "architecture_maturity": 29.18, "architecture_confidence": 57.47, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 58.25, "rotation_up": 27.49, "upward_expansion": 29.23, "deceleration": 57.51, "rotation_down": 43.09, "downward_expansion": 26.9 }, "activity_lines": [ 36.180167, 36.406455, 36.364869, 36.397592 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 35.407501, "trend_reference": 36.192917, "distance_from_trend": -0.021701, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 29.955877, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.181988, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.434344, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.032289, "excess_performance": -0.018947, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.021701, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.023454, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.181988, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.034552, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.064343, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.068351, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.032289, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.798005, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 12137, "relative_activity": 0.916145, "balance": 0.798005, "dry_up": 0.727247, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.028303, "annualized_volatility": 0.178788, "from_high_reference": -0.070547, "from_low_reference": 0.150557 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 36.192917, "fair_value_reference": 29.955877, "structural_low": 33.759998, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.024459, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.012404, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.048301, "worst_return": 0.001808, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.051462, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.033259, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.051462, "worst_return": 0.051462, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.084369, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.023504, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.084369, "worst_return": 0.084369, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.289428, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.104529, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.289428, "worst_return": 0.289428, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.050761, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.017074, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.049553, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.021713, "active": false }, { "regime": 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13202.3, "trend": 36.139333, "fair_value": 29.920245, "relative_strength": -5.020685, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.347739, "energy": 14.841778, "activity_lines": [ 36.605666, 36.590909, 36.468179, 36.444807 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 35.407501, "volume": 12137, "typical_volume": 13247.9, "trend": 36.192917, "fair_value": 29.955877, "relative_strength": -6.434344, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -18.921571, "energy": 12.064081, "activity_lines": [ 36.180167, 36.406455, 36.364869, 36.397592 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }