{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9e668970-bebe-47a9-aed7-ea2a598b14c1", "symbol": "IDBI", "name": "IDBI Bank Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 90.364, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 0.071, "architecture_energy": 18.724, "architecture_maturity": 21.805, "architecture_confidence": 55.469, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.42, "rotation_up": 36.14, "upward_expansion": 34.85, "deceleration": 43.6, "rotation_down": 17.93, "downward_expansion": 43.18 }, "activity_lines": [ 84.521333, 83.990363, 80.496238, 81.530301 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 84.220001, "trend_reference": 85.763, "distance_from_trend": -0.017991, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 82.93007, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.015554, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.792302, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.211866, "excess_performance": -0.168157, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.017991, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.069584, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.015554, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.090612, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.057923, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.116242, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.211866, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.568936, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 14887059, "relative_activity": 0.337453, "balance": 1.568936, "dry_up": 1.275641, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.055715, "annualized_volatility": 0.521289, "from_high_reference": -0.288562, "from_low_reference": 0.380429 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 85.763, "fair_value_reference": 82.93007, "structural_low": 61.009998, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.016045, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.001019, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.219116, "worst_return": -0.008533, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.169834, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.080492, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.289961, "worst_return": 0.049708, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.109053, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.035825, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.206545, "worst_return": 0.01156, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"relative_strength": -2.054237, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 3.333233, "energy": 36.463847, "activity_lines": [ 85.031999, 82.852545, 79.20219, 81.908968 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 83.75, "volume": 37579233, "typical_volume": 57160778.75, "trend": 86.403334, "fair_value": 82.787745, "relative_strength": -5.738053, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 1.790477, "energy": 23.646742, "activity_lines": [ 84.609999, 83.479636, 79.806762, 81.671161 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 84.220001, "volume": 14887059, "typical_volume": 44115922.95, "trend": 85.763, "fair_value": 82.93007, "relative_strength": -5.792302, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 0.070666, "energy": 18.7235, "activity_lines": [ 84.521333, 83.990363, 80.496238, 81.530301 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }