{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9e678e3f-ee3f-42e4-9050-218fcc33c6d8", "symbol": "QID", "name": "PROSHARES TRUST ULTRASHORT QQQ (POST REV SPLIT)", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -51.548, "architecture_energy": 28.795, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 78.452, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.44, "rotation_up": 27.72, "upward_expansion": 20.7, "deceleration": 46.85, "rotation_down": 30.99, "downward_expansion": 59.37 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.841333, 14.671365, 14.87915, 16.083285 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 13.94, "trend_reference": 17.53435, "distance_from_trend": -0.204989, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 31.98598, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.564184, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -35.018686, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.31711, "excess_performance": -0.442735, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.204989, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.094654, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.564184, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.028017, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.350187, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.059247, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.31711, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.685184, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 96379854, "relative_activity": 0.964483, "balance": 0.685184, "dry_up": 0.841256, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.096923, "annualized_volatility": 0.437154, "from_high_reference": -0.4316, "from_low_reference": 0.068511 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.53435, "fair_value_reference": 31.98598, "structural_low": 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"regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.193272, "energy": 41.748466, "activity_lines": [ 14.506582, 14.327927, 15.362057, 16.635486 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.65, "volume": 86119412, "typical_volume": 103982414.55, "trend": 17.870208, "fair_value": 32.527014, "relative_strength": -25.568442, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.117126, "energy": 32.846283, "activity_lines": [ 14.953333, 14.57872, 15.235258, 16.484139 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.43, "volume": 78903158, "typical_volume": 101511948.0, "trend": 17.71304, "fair_value": 32.267296, "relative_strength": -26.464568, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.5017, "energy": 24.349248, "activity_lines": [ 15.168667, 14.770843, 15.113548, 16.326707 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.94, "volume": 96379854, "typical_volume": 99929035.9, "trend": 17.53435, "fair_value": 31.98598, "relative_strength": -35.018686, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.548046, "energy": 28.794674, "activity_lines": [ 14.841333, 14.671365, 14.87915, 16.083285 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }