{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9e6c5941-d8d4-4593-ac79-26ab89f147d3", "symbol": "300298", "name": "Sinocare Inc.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 74.115, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -7.148, "architecture_energy": 19.705, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 50.105, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.52, "rotation_up": 43.19, "upward_expansion": 26.91, "deceleration": 41.32, "rotation_down": 13.97, "downward_expansion": 47.24 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.869333, 15.354909, 15.463667, 15.766323 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 16.35, "trend_reference": 16.354, "distance_from_trend": -0.000245, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 22.089228, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.25982, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -10.538354, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.068376, "excess_performance": -0.075776, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.000245, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.051905, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.25982, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00078, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.105384, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.184349, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.068376, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.537714, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 44220460, "relative_activity": 1.831974, "balance": 0.537714, "dry_up": 1.88824, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.062621, "annualized_volatility": 0.289915, "from_high_reference": -0.251031, "from_low_reference": 0.201323 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.354, "fair_value_reference": 22.089228, "structural_low": 13.61, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 35, "median_return": -0.007396, "positive_rate": 0.457143, "directional_follow_through": 0.542857, "median_excess_return": 0.002999, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.538418, "worst_return": -0.187472, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.035433, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": 6.6e-05, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.33301, "worst_return": -0.151313, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.053742, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.134948, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.310887, "worst_return": -0.155939, "sufficient": true }, { 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}, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.35, "volume": 32925239, "typical_volume": 22945471.75, "trend": 16.379333, "fair_value": 22.130963, "relative_strength": -6.804683, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -15.662945, "energy": 16.930367, "activity_lines": [ 15.522, 15.106, 15.394714, 15.768215 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.35, "volume": 44220460, "typical_volume": 24138153.85, "trend": 16.354, "fair_value": 22.089228, "relative_strength": -10.538354, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -7.148327, "energy": 19.70476, "activity_lines": [ 15.869333, 15.354909, 15.463667, 15.766323 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }