{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9e6fc83c-57ac-4fdd-b3be-defb9244f5ca", "symbol": "ADE", "name": "Bitcoin Group SE", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.859, "architecture_energy": 64.891, "architecture_maturity": 32.843, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.9, "rotation_up": 20.64, "upward_expansion": 14.19, "deceleration": 40.63, "rotation_down": 56.32, "downward_expansion": 85.19 }, "activity_lines": [ 23.742667, 24.122909, 25.959047, 26.995398 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 23.700001, "trend_reference": 28.220666, "distance_from_trend": -0.16019, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 39.153872, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.394696, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -30.660449, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.161359, "excess_performance": -0.225998, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.16019, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.086887, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.394696, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.212791, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.306604, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.184583, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.161359, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.145548, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 35202, "relative_activity": 0.576412, "balance": 0.145548, "dry_up": 0.569772, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.089808, "annualized_volatility": 0.406382, "from_high_reference": -0.464356, "from_low_reference": 0.18797 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 28.220666, "fair_value_reference": 39.153872, "structural_low": 19.950001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": -0.032729, "positive_rate": 0.419355, "directional_follow_through": 0.580645, "median_excess_return": -0.007265, "regime_survival": 0.741935, "best_return": 0.199424, "worst_return": -0.124304, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.023162, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.039057, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.12385, "worst_return": -0.234099, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.031707, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.06432, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.941748, "worst_return": -0.304168, "sufficient": true 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-64.03403, "energy": 68.92662, "activity_lines": [ 24.725333, 25.988, 27.689809, 28.400086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 22.719999, "volume": 46175, "typical_volume": 76283.5, "trend": 29.145333, "fair_value": 39.104514, "relative_strength": -32.047, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.987251, "energy": 75.951398, "activity_lines": [ 23.926666, 25.162545, 27.130476, 27.964258 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 23.879999, "volume": 26405, "typical_volume": 72868.6, "trend": 28.868, "fair_value": 39.121032, "relative_strength": -28.45653, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.76913, "energy": 65.587838, "activity_lines": [ 23.798666, 24.712363, 26.712571, 27.624559 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 23.98, "volume": 31404, "typical_volume": 66726.95, "trend": 28.564, "fair_value": 39.137555, "relative_strength": -28.837749, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.141524, "energy": 62.186024, "activity_lines": [ 23.869333, 24.397818, 26.336571, 27.309204 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 23.700001, "volume": 35202, "typical_volume": 61070.9, "trend": 28.220666, "fair_value": 39.153872, "relative_strength": -30.660449, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.859261, "energy": 64.890575, "activity_lines": [ 23.742667, 24.122909, 25.959047, 26.995398 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }