{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9e71c9de-9a39-4715-86f9-9c7b9e4bff14", "symbol": "ASML", "name": "ASML Holding NV ADR", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 33.995, "architecture_energy": 18.515, "architecture_maturity": 60.071, "architecture_confidence": 92.704, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.72, "rotation_up": 21.71, "upward_expansion": 52.81, "deceleration": 93.62, "rotation_down": 26.66, "downward_expansion": 18.81 }, "activity_lines": [ 1718.030205, 1750.10814, 1699.246362, 1627.093552 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 1740.99, "trend_reference": 1541.781765, "distance_from_trend": 0.129207, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 945.224063, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.841881, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 18.471671, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.236505, "excess_performance": 0.049051, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.129207, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.175334, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.841881, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011569, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.184717, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.079585, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.236505, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.996002, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6322520, "relative_activity": 0.692066, "balance": 0.996002, "dry_up": 1.058037, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.101186, "annualized_volatility": 0.4161, "from_high_reference": -0.128312, "from_low_reference": 1.44378 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1541.781765, "fair_value_reference": 945.224063, "structural_low": 1245.355367, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.082837, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.016468, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.119181, "worst_return": -0.007484, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.080434, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.061025, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.379044, "worst_return": -0.054409, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.224084, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.245228, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.049756, "worst_return": -0.240674, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.495898, "energy": 40.715201, "activity_lines": [ 1781.37202, 1770.10624, 1663.364635, 1588.340146 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1754.720279, "volume": 6749198, "typical_volume": 8971108.95, "trend": 1510.415573, "fair_value": 931.975229, "relative_strength": 28.955424, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.663216, "energy": 31.771748, "activity_lines": [ 1764.349941, 1774.933698, 1681.682097, 1605.576534 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1629.0, "volume": 12662887, "typical_volume": 9224701.5, "trend": 1526.060653, "fair_value": 938.190014, "relative_strength": 17.781312, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.827329, "energy": 21.657264, "activity_lines": [ 1717.085084, 1752.304555, 1685.812991, 1613.227142 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1740.99, "volume": 6322520, "typical_volume": 9135720.35, "trend": 1541.781765, "fair_value": 945.224063, "relative_strength": 18.471671, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.994719, "energy": 18.514639, "activity_lines": [ 1718.030205, 1750.10814, 1699.246362, 1627.093552 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }