{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9e738ac1-f70e-43d5-aba5-069dfdb0d225", "symbol": "SOLAR", "name": "Solartron Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 81.408, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -36.048, "architecture_energy": 32.154, "architecture_maturity": 16.788, "architecture_confidence": 62.043, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.18, "rotation_up": 24.02, "upward_expansion": 10.94, "deceleration": 58.21, "rotation_down": 57.01, "downward_expansion": 52.61 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.224667, 0.228545, 0.252667, 0.253226 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.22, "trend_reference": 0.243333, "distance_from_trend": -0.09589, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.433205, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.492157, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -28.480205, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.294118, "excess_performance": 0.101793, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.09589, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.023843, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.492157, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.164028, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.284802, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.300378, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.294118, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.700701, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2881600, "relative_activity": 0.112246, "balance": 0.700701, "dry_up": 0.341227, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.143357, "annualized_volatility": 1.019686, "from_high_reference": -0.531915, "from_low_reference": 0.571429 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.243333, "fair_value_reference": 0.433205, "structural_low": 0.14, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.111025, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.139436, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.294272, "worst_return": -0.363636, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.118188, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.129296, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.024194, "worst_return": -0.454545, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.048427, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.132965, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.0, "worst_return": -0.096854, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.241379, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.057143, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.393939, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.047619, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.25, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "Developing", 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0.257355 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.22, "volume": 11471300, "typical_volume": 31460115.0, "trend": 0.240333, "fair_value": 0.443141, "relative_strength": -31.714055, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.697993, "energy": 54.614287, "activity_lines": [ 0.224667, 0.242364, 0.265, 0.256086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.24, "volume": 17378700, "typical_volume": 31835975.0, "trend": 0.241667, "fair_value": 0.440192, "relative_strength": -25.040909, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.40286, "energy": 38.625397, "activity_lines": [ 0.229333, 0.239091, 0.262524, 0.256065 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.22, "volume": 3308500, "typical_volume": 31767175.0, "trend": 0.242333, "fair_value": 0.436731, "relative_strength": -29.685023, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.990119, "energy": 29.349391, "activity_lines": [ 0.227333, 0.233091, 0.257762, 0.254667 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.22, "volume": 2881600, "typical_volume": 25672135.0, "trend": 0.243333, "fair_value": 0.433205, "relative_strength": -28.480205, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -36.0483, "energy": 32.154443, "activity_lines": [ 0.224667, 0.228545, 0.252667, 0.253226 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }