{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9e75a704-f01d-4618-ad1d-9c6930c3c658", "symbol": "600023", "name": "Zhejiang Zheneng Electric Power Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 86.387, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -36.157, "architecture_energy": 41.366, "architecture_maturity": 13.225, "architecture_confidence": 69.392, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.39, "rotation_up": 19.54, "upward_expansion": 13.84, "deceleration": 50.83, "rotation_down": 61.59, "downward_expansion": 53.18 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.007078, 5.13174, 5.42473, 5.460346 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 4.93, "trend_reference": 5.419459, "distance_from_trend": -0.090315, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 5.215129, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.054673, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.116268, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.00404, "excess_performance": 0.039163, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.090315, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.011974, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.054673, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.197408, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.061163, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.0941, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.00404, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.633369, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 244201141, "relative_activity": 0.776139, "balance": 0.633369, "dry_up": 0.947615, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.09843, "annualized_volatility": 0.392141, "from_high_reference": -0.271787, "from_low_reference": 0.054475 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.419459, "fair_value_reference": 5.215129, "structural_low": 4.675313, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.03262, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": 0.011045, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.215151, "worst_return": -0.006024, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.051563, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.030632, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.072289, "worst_return": 0.007042, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.188966, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.154198, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.547344, "worst_return": -0.007042, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.067939, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.056546, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.028958, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.011516, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.008081, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.00202, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.028143, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.107846, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.054845, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.030119, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-07-28", "close": 4.346643, "volume": 284705193, "typical_volume": 291626180.65, "trend": 3.894399, "fair_value": 3.33037, "relative_strength": 18.978645, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.557822, 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5.536809 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.0831, "volume": 296294968, "typical_volume": 328395525.95, "trend": 5.422792, "fair_value": 5.208734, "relative_strength": -0.465948, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.884715, "energy": 51.328266, "activity_lines": [ 5.048959, 5.319149, 5.536861, 5.514728 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.07, "volume": 312639723, "typical_volume": 319237026.9, "trend": 5.420125, "fair_value": 5.212206, "relative_strength": -1.014145, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -32.08084, "energy": 47.24008, "activity_lines": [ 5.054709, 5.23199, 5.486272, 5.491967 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.93, "volume": 244201141, "typical_volume": 314635646.8, "trend": 5.419459, "fair_value": 5.215129, "relative_strength": -6.116268, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -36.157323, "energy": 41.365827, "activity_lines": [ 5.007078, 5.13174, 5.42473, 5.460346 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }