{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9e75f858-5fef-4428-a1a1-b63f045283b2", "symbol": "HP", "name": "Helmerich and Payne Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 5.716, "architecture_energy": 7.8, "architecture_maturity": 19.669, "architecture_confidence": 71.651, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 65.36, "rotation_up": 37.24, "upward_expansion": 25.0, "deceleration": 47.96, "rotation_down": 24.54, "downward_expansion": 27.34 }, "activity_lines": [ 35.427333, 34.843273, 35.811795, 35.832941 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 37.1, "trend_reference": 35.487003, "distance_from_trend": 0.045453, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 30.29681, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.224551, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 8.090471, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.045437, "excess_performance": -0.080188, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.045453, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.071737, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.224551, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.025934, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.080905, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.231204, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.045437, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.082302, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6854525, "relative_activity": 1.197164, "balance": 1.082302, "dry_up": 0.923965, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.087107, "annualized_volatility": 0.398138, "from_high_reference": -0.112865, "from_low_reference": 1.209804 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 35.487003, "fair_value_reference": 30.29681, "structural_low": 30.4, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.006597, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.01211, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.212805, "worst_return": -0.263606, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.002681, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.039303, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 0.630892, "worst_return": -0.419409, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.08495, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.104233, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.258911, "worst_return": -0.201968, "sufficient": true }, { 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{ "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2024-08-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.155348, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.06681, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.101519, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.034108, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.131666, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": 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35.714578 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 35.34, "volume": 4126015, "typical_volume": 5938933.55, "trend": 35.089922, "fair_value": 30.331033, "relative_strength": 9.804765, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -18.521428, "energy": 33.2426, "activity_lines": [ 33.976667, 34.720182, 35.866726, 35.747623 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 34.57, "volume": 4960196, "typical_volume": 5823321.95, "trend": 35.257641, "fair_value": 30.301991, "relative_strength": 5.237824, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -13.059986, "energy": 13.320145, "activity_lines": [ 34.306, 34.503455, 35.71672, 35.714079 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 37.1, "volume": 6854525, "typical_volume": 5725637.6, "trend": 35.487003, "fair_value": 30.29681, "relative_strength": 8.090471, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 5.715685, "energy": 7.79961, "activity_lines": [ 35.427333, 34.843273, 35.811795, 35.832941 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }