{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9e761ac7-eb6c-451b-b399-75808a63caa3", "symbol": "VYMI", "name": "VANGUARD INTERNATIONAL HIGH DIVIDEND YIELD INDEX FUND ETF SHARES", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 87.067, "architecture_energy": 91.238, "architecture_maturity": 38.589, "architecture_confidence": 72.362, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 4.67, "rotation_up": 85.15, "upward_expansion": 98.97, "deceleration": 39.07, "rotation_down": 9.79, "downward_expansion": 20.97 }, "activity_lines": [ 103.117333, 101.575674, 100.014994, 98.674191 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 105.05, "trend_reference": 97.05598, "distance_from_trend": 0.082365, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 73.463368, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.429964, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.665357, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.093213, "excess_performance": -0.09424, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.082365, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.050888, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.429964, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.019154, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.006654, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.049434, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.093213, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.936268, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3888949, "relative_activity": 0.833858, "balance": 1.936268, "dry_up": 0.822342, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.020645, "annualized_volatility": 0.152404, "from_high_reference": -0.002374, "from_low_reference": 0.325712 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 97.05598, "fair_value_reference": 73.463368, "structural_low": 89.091757, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 41, "median_return": 0.016422, "positive_rate": 0.658537, "directional_follow_through": 0.658537, "median_excess_return": -0.018874, "regime_survival": 0.829268, "best_return": 0.121394, "worst_return": -0.082265, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.03999, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.0237, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.08066, "worst_return": -0.105037, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.081036, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.025954, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.148413, "worst_return": -0.068424, "sufficient": true }, { 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"activity_lines": [ 100.654667, 99.851987, 98.714319, 97.640758 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 103.56, "volume": 3939587, "typical_volume": 4783381.8, "trend": 96.537271, "fair_value": 73.147953, "relative_strength": 4.380288, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.975756, "energy": 83.00998, "activity_lines": [ 101.829333, 100.624262, 99.323171, 98.124983 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 105.05, "volume": 3888949, "typical_volume": 4663804.0, "trend": 97.05598, "fair_value": 73.463368, "relative_strength": 0.665357, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 87.067171, "energy": 91.237528, "activity_lines": [ 103.117333, 101.575674, 100.014994, 98.674191 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }