{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9e779601-4046-4a69-a2e2-a4f4e3f76ea1", "symbol": "CGS", "name": "Castings P.L.C.", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 35.174, "architecture_energy": 21.324, "architecture_maturity": 61.968, "architecture_confidence": 77.672, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.83, "rotation_up": 21.07, "upward_expansion": 54.08, "deceleration": 93.86, "rotation_down": 27.81, "downward_expansion": 20.08 }, "activity_lines": [ 300.035207, 307.197067, 297.53888, 286.867722 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 291.0, "trend_reference": 276.62442, "distance_from_trend": 0.051968, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 303.653175, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.04167, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.164232, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.062044, "excess_performance": -0.004235, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.051968, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.060562, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.04167, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.099634, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.011642, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.047162, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.062044, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.256155, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 76418, "relative_activity": 0.497953, "balance": 0.256155, "dry_up": 2.247185, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.075004, "annualized_volatility": 0.345599, "from_high_reference": -0.129264, "from_low_reference": 0.4386 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 276.62442, "fair_value_reference": 303.653175, "structural_low": 202.279999, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.016043, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.001785, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.080925, "worst_return": -0.169903, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.011111, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.031592, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.118378, "worst_return": -0.162735, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.115574, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.153153, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.105952, "worst_return": -0.314859, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"direction": 64.426791, "energy": 73.655203, "activity_lines": [ 316.71458, 308.602585, 288.107091, 279.738357 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 314.1479, "volume": 360060, "typical_volume": 111871.7, "trend": 274.341087, "fair_value": 305.442986, "relative_strength": 8.53036, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.656127, "energy": 54.293612, "activity_lines": [ 315.4249, 311.591573, 291.918393, 282.415459 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 311.0, "volume": 353653, "typical_volume": 127529.4, "trend": 275.52442, "fair_value": 304.88975, "relative_strength": 6.529981, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.557871, "energy": 45.924913, "activity_lines": [ 313.609393, 313.15098, 295.195857, 284.78055 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 293.0, "volume": 589319, "typical_volume": 152930.1, "trend": 276.12442, "fair_value": 304.284274, "relative_strength": -0.513772, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.568054, "energy": 29.637566, "activity_lines": [ 306.131447, 310.63766, 296.542368, 285.908007 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 291.0, "volume": 76418, "typical_volume": 153464.2, "trend": 276.62442, "fair_value": 303.653175, "relative_strength": -1.164232, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.174469, "energy": 21.323902, "activity_lines": [ 300.035207, 307.197067, 297.53888, 286.867722 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }