{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9e77dd49-1f30-4a47-b311-7f37fc253a67", "symbol": "4339", "name": "Derayah Financial - Derayah Reit Fund", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 48.787, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 2.814, "architecture_energy": 17.642, "architecture_maturity": 53.605, "architecture_confidence": 90.795, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.84, "rotation_up": 14.95, "upward_expansion": 41.15, "deceleration": 87.36, "rotation_down": 43.51, "downward_expansion": 35.15 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.314721, 5.388804, 5.394103, 5.336559 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 5.29, "trend_reference": 5.251037, "distance_from_trend": 0.00742, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 5.751474, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.080236, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 1.911859, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.0378, "excess_performance": 0.069629, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.00742, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.015026, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.080236, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001828, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.019119, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.038015, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.0378, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.864102, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 569939, "relative_activity": 0.824278, "balance": 0.864102, "dry_up": 1.127787, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.030844, "annualized_volatility": 0.137109, "from_high_reference": -0.07193, "from_low_reference": 0.102353 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.251037, "fair_value_reference": 5.751474, "structural_low": 4.891072, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.002261, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.018401, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.006004, "worst_return": -0.010526, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.006015, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.047959, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.006015, "worst_return": 0.006015, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.042761, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.153674, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.042761, "worst_return": -0.042761, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, 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619922, "typical_volume": 668154.3, "trend": 5.232776, "fair_value": 5.786786, "relative_strength": 4.23072, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.358016, "energy": 23.165648, "activity_lines": [ 5.392012, 5.445702, 5.401215, 5.329588 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.29, "volume": 787154, "typical_volume": 690264.45, "trend": 5.239171, "fair_value": 5.768739, "relative_strength": 4.381514, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 15.821119, "energy": 20.76915, "activity_lines": [ 5.340366, 5.416889, 5.398164, 5.33328 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.29, "volume": 569939, "typical_volume": 691440.2, "trend": 5.251037, "fair_value": 5.751474, "relative_strength": 1.911859, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 2.813952, "energy": 17.642001, "activity_lines": [ 5.314721, 5.388804, 5.394103, 5.336559 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }