{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "9e791d20-24ba-45a6-b99a-5f9b1a939b67",
    "symbol": "CNXT",
    "name": "VANECK CHINEXT INNOVATORS ETF",
    "exchange": "NYSEARCA",
    "country": "US",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "SPY",
    "stage": 3,
    "stage_name": "Distribution",
    "phase": "3b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution",
    "transition": "stage_3_churning",
    "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact",
    "confidence": 51.51,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "mixed",
    "architecture_direction": -20.57,
    "architecture_energy": 34.349,
    "architecture_maturity": 46.911,
    "architecture_confidence": 63.085,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 46.27,
        "rotation_up": 14.08,
        "upward_expansion": 16.84,
        "deceleration": 71.01,
        "rotation_down": 64.13,
        "downward_expansion": 41.84
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        49.964667,
        52.435818,
        53.639714,
        52.422086
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": -0.5
    },
    "latest_close": 51.38,
    "trend_reference": 50.618333,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.015047,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 32.500894,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.58088,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -1.712818,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.125274,
    "excess_performance": -0.000351,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.015047,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.077598,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.58088,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.212271,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.017128,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.22732,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.125274,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.610101,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 767445,
      "relative_activity": 1.407641,
      "balance": 0.610101,
      "dry_up": 0.916832,
      "accumulation_observations": 3,
      "distribution_observations": 4
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.080649,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.348767,
      "from_high_reference": -0.179102,
      "from_low_reference": 0.629874
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 50.618333,
      "fair_value_reference": 32.500894,
      "structural_low": 43.03,
      "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 10,
        "median_return": 0.015117,
        "positive_rate": 0.6,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.6,
        "median_excess_return": 0.032655,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
        "best_return": 0.120313,
        "worst_return": -0.150186,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": 0.060824,
        "positive_rate": 0.6,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.6,
        "median_excess_return": 0.031627,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.189,
        "worst_return": -0.103282,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.126496,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": 0.070014,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.390762,
        "worst_return": -0.030504,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.276002,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": 0.112322,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.727398,
        "worst_return": -0.175394,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
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        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2024-07-12",
        "end": "2024-09-20",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.060861,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2024-09-27",
        "end": "2024-10-11",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.147573,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "end": "2024-12-27",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.030169,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-01-03",
        "end": "2025-01-10",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.030805,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2025-04-04",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.054315,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
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        "end": "2025-06-20",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.060492,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
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      {
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        "return": 0.029939,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-07-25",
        "end": "2025-11-21",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.270889,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "tenure": "New",
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        "active": false
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "return": -0.020485,
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      {
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      {
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        "active": true
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-24",
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        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "date": "2026-06-05",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "typical_volume": 506357.0,
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        "relative_strength": 10.122494,
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        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "direction": 58.539784,
        "energy": 48.723613,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 48.92,
        "volume": 533406,
        "typical_volume": 510079.75,
        "trend": 50.196333,
        "fair_value": 32.095964,
        "relative_strength": -1.275075,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 14.621206,
        "energy": 13.336367,
        "activity_lines": [
          54.441333,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 49.42,
        "volume": 313458,
        "typical_volume": 509899.35,
        "trend": 50.346667,
        "fair_value": 32.228002,
        "relative_strength": -0.178809,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 3.834591,
        "energy": 21.084533,
        "activity_lines": [
          52.134,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 47.83,
        "volume": 385116,
        "typical_volume": 518616.6,
        "trend": 50.448667,
        "fair_value": 32.348428,
        "relative_strength": -4.829094,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -31.511212,
        "energy": 38.802555,
        "activity_lines": [
          50.038,
          53.037273,
          53.766476,
          52.362
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 51.38,
        "volume": 767445,
        "typical_volume": 545199.4,
        "trend": 50.618333,
        "fair_value": 32.500894,
        "relative_strength": -1.712818,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -20.570412,
        "energy": 34.348606,
        "activity_lines": [
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          52.422086
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}