{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "9e79fe6c-8e1c-4ceb-b8f5-e4ee28bfde86",
    "symbol": "SPBC",
    "name": "SIMPLIFY US EQUITY PLUS BITCOIN STRATEGY ETF",
    "exchange": "NASDAQ",
    "country": "US",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "QQQ",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 67.543,
    "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 77.414,
    "architecture_energy": 54.55,
    "architecture_maturity": 15.752,
    "architecture_confidence": 80.094,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 22.72,
        "rotation_up": 53.91,
        "upward_expansion": 79.29,
        "deceleration": 56.9,
        "rotation_down": 23.13,
        "downward_expansion": 8.29
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        48.031127,
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        46.523396
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      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.5
    },
    "latest_close": 49.2981,
    "trend_reference": 45.632864,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.08032,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 37.485087,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.315139,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -4.229648,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": 0.114034,
    "excess_performance": -0.07342,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.08032,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.021553,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.315139,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.029928,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.042296,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.041167,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.114034,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 3.924995,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 112098,
      "relative_activity": 3.722016,
      "balance": 3.924995,
      "dry_up": 1.76486,
      "accumulation_observations": 4,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.025311,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.158821,
      "from_high_reference": -0.000444,
      "from_low_reference": 0.223582
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 45.632864,
      "fair_value_reference": 37.485087,
      "structural_low": 40.29,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 31,
        "median_return": 0.015326,
        "positive_rate": 0.677419,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.677419,
        "median_excess_return": -0.002393,
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        "best_return": 0.078122,
        "worst_return": -0.05336,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 10,
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        "worst_return": -0.059969,
        "sufficient": true
      },
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        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 6,
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        "worst_return": -0.016317,
        "sufficient": true
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        "horizon": "Full cycle",
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        "regime": "downward_expansion",
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      {
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-24",
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        "date": "2026-05-01",
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        "modifier": "Structural repair",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-05-08",
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      },
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      },
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "typical_volume": 29241.65,
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        "energy": 28.781312,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "typical_volume": 24129.4,
        "trend": 45.137077,
        "fair_value": 36.741159,
        "relative_strength": -7.741397,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "typical_volume": 24834.45,
        "trend": 45.255106,
        "fair_value": 36.890888,
        "relative_strength": -7.626317,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 56.957117,
        "energy": 38.792833,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "volume": 15936,
        "typical_volume": 23182.7,
        "trend": 45.351186,
        "fair_value": 37.035269,
        "relative_strength": -4.788583,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 53.820103,
        "energy": 37.629999,
        "activity_lines": [
          47.415529,
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
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        "volume": 21897,
        "typical_volume": 23248.05,
        "trend": 45.414352,
        "fair_value": 37.177376,
        "relative_strength": -3.769186,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 53.356887,
        "energy": 37.876533,
        "activity_lines": [
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 47.5133,
        "volume": 62682,
        "typical_volume": 25880.5,
        "trend": 45.506546,
        "fair_value": 37.325667,
        "relative_strength": -3.161341,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 54.678333,
        "energy": 38.131328,
        "activity_lines": [
          47.414927,
          47.316506,
          47.071787,
          46.27878
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 49.2981,
        "volume": 112098,
        "typical_volume": 30117.55,
        "trend": 45.632864,
        "fair_value": 37.485087,
        "relative_strength": -4.229648,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 77.413605,
        "energy": 54.549626,
        "activity_lines": [
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}