{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9e7b1869-bd0f-405e-9478-edd22aeafa4f", "symbol": "NCSM", "name": "NCS Multistage Holdings Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 57.065, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -14.555, "architecture_energy": 23.939, "architecture_maturity": 22.164, "architecture_confidence": 53.433, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.53, "rotation_up": 32.98, "upward_expansion": 24.19, "deceleration": 35.28, "rotation_down": 32.32, "downward_expansion": 40.19 }, "activity_lines": [ 46.73, 46.639455, 48.307, 50.223849 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 47.75, "trend_reference": 50.097833, "distance_from_trend": -0.046865, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 29.642235, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.610877, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -9.400059, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.234807, "excess_performance": 0.047354, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.046865, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.062915, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.610877, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.130237, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.094001, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.104694, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.234807, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.254627, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 31223, "relative_activity": 0.238497, "balance": 3.254627, "dry_up": 0.41813, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.106162, "annualized_volatility": 1.028715, "from_high_reference": -0.45338, "from_low_reference": 0.502513 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 50.097833, "fair_value_reference": 29.642235, "structural_low": 37.47, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": -0.011115, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": -0.052543, "regime_survival": 0.85, "best_return": 0.311736, "worst_return": -0.20977, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.051095, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.126551, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.478674, "worst_return": -0.227692, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.150613, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.176331, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.793635, "worst_return": -0.213551, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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49.292833, "fair_value": 29.078146, "relative_strength": -13.201062, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.237324, "energy": 38.837327, "activity_lines": [ 44.758, 46.296545, 50.187167, 50.649538 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 47.23, "volume": 134149, "typical_volume": 154332.9, "trend": 49.520167, "fair_value": 29.257633, "relative_strength": -4.819913, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.759384, "energy": 32.10386, "activity_lines": [ 45.341333, 46.465091, 49.520571, 50.516452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 47.0, "volume": 27321, "typical_volume": 138615.55, "trend": 49.765167, "fair_value": 29.447665, "relative_strength": -6.074539, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.303161, "energy": 35.201839, "activity_lines": [ 45.996, 46.509273, 48.837405, 50.35386 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 47.75, "volume": 31223, "typical_volume": 130915.65, "trend": 50.097833, "fair_value": 29.642235, "relative_strength": -9.400059, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -14.554992, "energy": 23.939139, "activity_lines": [ 46.73, 46.639455, 48.307, 50.223849 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }