{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9e7df79b-b621-482d-b1bc-16e0d0789c3a", "symbol": "603393", "name": "Xinjiang Xintai Natural Gas Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -44.49, "architecture_energy": 35.892, "architecture_maturity": 76.849, "architecture_confidence": 86.947, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.57, "rotation_up": 27.89, "upward_expansion": 19.88, "deceleration": 46.98, "rotation_down": 31.87, "downward_expansion": 67.55 }, "activity_lines": [ 25.136667, 24.552546, 26.147, 28.222731 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 25.5, "trend_reference": 29.933667, "distance_from_trend": -0.148116, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 29.943035, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.148383, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.677617, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.167211, "excess_performance": -0.124007, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.148116, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.033567, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.148383, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.152242, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.126776, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.031139, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.167211, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.039322, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 41083319, "relative_activity": 0.947253, "balance": 1.039322, "dry_up": 1.120005, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.08371, "annualized_volatility": 0.491038, "from_high_reference": -0.420455, "from_low_reference": 0.191589 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 29.933667, "fair_value_reference": 29.943035, "structural_low": 21.4, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.031865, "positive_rate": 0.642857, "directional_follow_through": 0.357143, "median_excess_return": 0.009693, "regime_survival": 0.785714, "best_return": 0.2371, "worst_return": -0.096128, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.011889, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.01285, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.536834, "worst_return": -0.108723, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.002378, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.004805, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.132908, "worst_return": -0.008753, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"energy": 71.387617, "activity_lines": [ 23.798667, 24.284364, 26.896476, 28.779398 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 25.85, "volume": 37964441, "typical_volume": 46750637.8, "trend": 29.97, "fair_value": 29.945537, "relative_strength": -9.395054, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.055266, "energy": 49.114639, "activity_lines": [ 24.641333, 24.423818, 26.499619, 28.511118 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 25.5, "volume": 41083319, "typical_volume": 43371029.2, "trend": 29.933667, "fair_value": 29.943035, "relative_strength": -12.677617, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.489817, "energy": 35.891979, "activity_lines": [ 25.136667, 24.552546, 26.147, 28.222731 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }