{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9e7f3880-8a9e-4c1a-8987-59a428af1d96", "symbol": "ACT", "name": "AlzChem Group AG", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 69.518, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -21.818, "architecture_energy": 26.945, "architecture_maturity": 7.65, "architecture_confidence": 54.851, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.07, "rotation_up": 18.09, "upward_expansion": 23.61, "deceleration": 55.5, "rotation_down": 53.76, "downward_expansion": 34.94 }, "activity_lines": [ 163.553332, 168.678181, 171.142906, 169.304137 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 157.899994, "trend_reference": 165.449576, "distance_from_trend": -0.045631, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 90.302438, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.748568, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.536425, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.110768, "excess_performance": 0.046129, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.045631, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.069836, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.748568, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.318341, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.065364, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.141206, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.110768, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.766804, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 193716, "relative_activity": 2.032008, "balance": 1.766804, "dry_up": 1.400116, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.086325, "annualized_volatility": 0.457677, "from_high_reference": -0.174595, "from_low_reference": 0.298301 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 165.449576, "fair_value_reference": 90.302438, "structural_low": 141.75898, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.025012, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.3, "median_excess_return": -0.014316, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.162722, "worst_return": -0.144068, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.021645, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.013623, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.214838, "worst_return": -0.099636, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.094934, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.054526, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.299504, "worst_return": -0.277047, 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2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.3486, "energy": 17.991577, "activity_lines": [ 174.520001, 175.945455, 173.212883, 169.098398 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 174.199997, "volume": 78907, "typical_volume": 97641.75, "trend": 164.609064, "fair_value": 87.529858, "relative_strength": 9.387643, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.563597, "energy": 19.306755, "activity_lines": [ 173.286667, 175.918182, 173.64679, 169.794152 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 176.600006, "volume": 89394, "typical_volume": 95104.4, "trend": 165.717782, "fair_value": 88.544132, "relative_strength": 9.402818, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.834108, "energy": 16.906221, "activity_lines": [ 173.866669, 176.069092, 174.180172, 170.567761 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 153.9, "volume": 171888, "typical_volume": 96466.2, "trend": 165.66838, "fair_value": 89.415322, "relative_strength": -6.47779, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": -8.004428, "energy": 13.826262, "activity_lines": [ 167.506668, 171.900001, 172.43933, 169.805324 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 157.899994, "volume": 193716, "typical_volume": 95332.3, "trend": 165.449576, "fair_value": 90.302438, "relative_strength": -6.536425, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.817539, "energy": 26.944516, "activity_lines": [ 163.553332, 168.678181, 171.142906, 169.304137 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }