{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9e8042ac-4d62-400f-8bc7-bb5f21c4daff", "symbol": "COW", "name": "iShares Global Agriculture Index ETF Common Class", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 81.739, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -57.639, "architecture_energy": 27.965, "architecture_maturity": 6.725, "architecture_confidence": 82.509, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.44, "rotation_up": 29.92, "upward_expansion": 21.58, "deceleration": 36.2, "rotation_down": 41.56, "downward_expansion": 62.92 }, "activity_lines": [ 71.438, 71.688842, 71.82026, 72.186237 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 69.860001, "trend_reference": 72.323685, "distance_from_trend": -0.034065, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 66.203727, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.055228, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.69497, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.038271, "excess_performance": -0.158692, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.034065, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.02805, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.055228, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.051524, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.11695, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.034922, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.038271, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.289538, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4400, "relative_activity": 0.246292, "balance": 1.289538, "dry_up": 0.356843, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.02546, "annualized_volatility": 0.182071, "from_high_reference": -0.088228, "from_low_reference": 0.115618 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 72.323685, "fair_value_reference": 66.203727, "structural_low": 69.82, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.01927, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.009001, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.122588, "worst_return": -0.075881, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.040221, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": -0.016988, "regime_survival": 0.111111, "best_return": 0.311863, "worst_return": -0.082421, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.035143, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.015091, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.134641, "worst_return": -0.022818, "sufficient": 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"fair_value": 66.136458, "relative_strength": -4.768436, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Re-acceleration watch", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.084369, "energy": 38.688611, "activity_lines": [ 73.082667, 72.300743, 72.285075, 72.443959 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 70.32, "volume": 4300, "typical_volume": 19225.0, "trend": 72.199018, "fair_value": 66.170546, "relative_strength": -8.676773, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -12.483674, "energy": 12.85911, "activity_lines": [ 72.296667, 72.030036, 72.064549, 72.337141 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 69.860001, "volume": 4400, "typical_volume": 17865.0, "trend": 72.323685, "fair_value": 66.203727, "relative_strength": -11.69497, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.639347, "energy": 27.964968, "activity_lines": [ 71.438, 71.688842, 71.82026, 72.186237 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }