{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9e808228-12d1-45df-9715-34d1c1d1a214", "symbol": "ONGC", "name": "Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 82.701, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -57.558, "architecture_energy": 43.968, "architecture_maturity": 33.468, "architecture_confidence": 60.685, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.07, "rotation_up": 24.36, "upward_expansion": 18.16, "deceleration": 63.45, "rotation_down": 46.31, "downward_expansion": 68.16 }, "activity_lines": [ 243.346, 243.266182, 255.102333, 261.109436 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 238.850006, "trend_reference": 264.78131, "distance_from_trend": -0.097935, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 235.258972, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.015264, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.463428, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.091019, "excess_performance": -0.04731, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.097935, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012706, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.015264, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.220955, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.044634, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.219376, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.091019, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.938496, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 62194601, "relative_activity": 0.947011, "balance": 0.938496, "dry_up": 0.879865, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.053226, "annualized_volatility": 0.292422, "from_high_reference": -0.223252, "from_low_reference": 0.088392 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 264.78131, "fair_value_reference": 235.258972, "structural_low": 233.100006, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.010504, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.363636, "median_excess_return": -0.01382, "regime_survival": 0.818182, "best_return": 0.123457, "worst_return": -0.077133, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.0962, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.020115, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.154178, "worst_return": -0.105047, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.127455, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.064099, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.303736, "worst_return": -0.048827, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -36.900666, "energy": 59.566837, "activity_lines": [ 242.817333, 248.272909, 262.129809, 265.115517 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 248.759995, "volume": 50528165, "typical_volume": 70563834.9, "trend": 264.222537, "fair_value": 234.104936, "relative_strength": 3.142398, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.368517, "energy": 46.691134, "activity_lines": [ 245.107998, 246.681271, 260.169618, 264.160132 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 242.529999, "volume": 63902666, "typical_volume": 67279439.55, "trend": 264.443247, "fair_value": 234.704357, "relative_strength": -2.130543, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.887559, "energy": 40.801939, "activity_lines": [ 245.154664, 244.876726, 257.759856, 262.760613 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 238.850006, "volume": 62194601, "typical_volume": 65674628.0, "trend": 264.78131, "fair_value": 235.258972, "relative_strength": -4.463428, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.558149, "energy": 43.968317, "activity_lines": [ 243.346, 243.266182, 255.102333, 261.109436 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }