{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9e84fc80-c8c0-40c0-9d11-db01841bd8a1", "symbol": "002792", "name": "Tongyu Communication Inc.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 92.131, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.009, "architecture_energy": 71.068, "architecture_maturity": 19.909, "architecture_confidence": 71.362, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.43, "rotation_up": 12.0, "upward_expansion": 15.52, "deceleration": 39.27, "rotation_down": 70.38, "downward_expansion": 88.86 }, "activity_lines": [ 29.359999, 31.234039, 36.193984, 38.75118 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 37.189999, "trend_reference": 42.447907, "distance_from_trend": -0.123867, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 19.879107, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.870808, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 8.65204, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.20619, "excess_performance": -0.21359, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.123867, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.049055, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.870808, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.995799, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.08652, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.438653, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.20619, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.284219, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 144586429, "relative_activity": 0.918568, "balance": 0.284219, "dry_up": 0.703276, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.162685, "annualized_volatility": 0.941692, "from_high_reference": -0.492979, "from_low_reference": 1.405563 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 42.447907, "fair_value_reference": 19.879107, "structural_low": 21.440001, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.071082, "positive_rate": 0.6875, "directional_follow_through": 0.3125, "median_excess_return": 0.041308, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.280328, "worst_return": -0.265499, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.001827, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.048148, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.546154, "worst_return": -0.170482, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.000937, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.041911, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.568511, "worst_return": -0.263224, "sufficient": true }, { 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35.42425, 39.682564, 41.586431 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 24.469999, "volume": 101232236, "typical_volume": 158859649.35, "trend": 43.239574, "fair_value": 19.638424, "relative_strength": -24.828713, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.86553, "energy": 87.974338, "activity_lines": [ 29.108666, 32.867793, 38.050482, 40.358996 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 23.76, "volume": 75279917, "typical_volume": 156020787.2, "trend": 42.631574, "fair_value": 19.712241, "relative_strength": -26.161608, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.286733, "energy": 90.431899, "activity_lines": [ 26.634666, 30.616203, 36.443304, 39.10225 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 37.189999, "volume": 144586429, "typical_volume": 157404147.7, "trend": 42.447907, "fair_value": 19.879107, "relative_strength": 8.65204, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.008723, "energy": 71.067895, "activity_lines": [ 29.359999, 31.234039, 36.193984, 38.75118 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }