{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9e9240c7-a25f-4787-94c5-22c3c14506a9", "symbol": "EUAU", "name": "WisdomTree Long AUD Short EUR", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 63.055, "architecture_energy": 53.956, "architecture_maturity": 51.108, "architecture_confidence": 54.749, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.9, "rotation_up": 52.61, "upward_expansion": 78.66, "deceleration": 71.49, "rotation_down": 25.83, "downward_expansion": 7.66 }, "activity_lines": [ 53.441334, 53.372364, 53.319952, 53.083935 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 53.470001, "trend_reference": 52.608333, "distance_from_trend": 0.016379, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 50.087148, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.067539, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.749015, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.042503, "excess_performance": -0.128388, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.016379, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.030479, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.067539, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.009234, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.09749, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.048767, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.042503, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.606372, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4476, "relative_activity": 14.066625, "balance": 4.606372, "dry_up": 4.108265, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.004762, "annualized_volatility": 0.051654, "from_high_reference": -0.007057, "from_low_reference": 0.132359 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 52.608333, "fair_value_reference": 50.087148, "structural_low": 51.290001, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.007168, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.015119, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.018621, "worst_return": -0.050242, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.020026, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.056778, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.025656, "worst_return": -0.044473, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.012833, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.073221, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.015792, "worst_return": -0.073572, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.911074, "energy": 40.10452, "activity_lines": [ 53.208667, 53.306181, 53.183952, 52.85644 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 53.73, "volume": 2, "typical_volume": 355.45, "trend": 52.337333, "fair_value": 50.023366, "relative_strength": -6.489721, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.417903, "energy": 52.305701, "activity_lines": [ 53.372, 53.37, 53.255523, 52.956473 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 53.32, "volume": 748, "typical_volume": 366.5, "trend": 52.477, "fair_value": 50.054776, "relative_strength": -7.582996, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.960076, "energy": 49.730633, "activity_lines": [ 53.377333, 53.355636, 53.281333, 53.019871 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 53.470001, "volume": 4476, "typical_volume": 318.2, "trend": 52.608333, "fair_value": 50.087148, "relative_strength": -9.749015, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.055139, "energy": 53.955568, "activity_lines": [ 53.441334, 53.372364, 53.319952, 53.083935 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }