{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9e954e4b-3d3d-43aa-a400-4a3dedd9772d", "symbol": "IH2O", "name": "iShares Global Water UCITS ETF USD (Dist)", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 69.732, "architecture_energy": 45.846, "architecture_maturity": 20.062, "architecture_confidence": 62.931, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The prior uptrend is attempting to re-accelerate.", "body": "Positive Trend survived a recompression and Fast Activity is strengthening again. Promotion requires renewed confirmation across the completed evidence set." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.93, "rotation_up": 63.12, "upward_expansion": 78.35, "deceleration": 63.12, "rotation_down": 14.75, "downward_expansion": 5.01 }, "activity_lines": [ 67.262668, 66.985819, 65.96811, 65.806907 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 68.010002, "trend_reference": 65.789449, "distance_from_trend": 0.033752, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 60.704972, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.120337, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -10.471979, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.021365, "excess_performance": -0.149527, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.033752, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012552, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.120337, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.040133, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.10472, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013559, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.021365, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.167135, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 42501, "relative_activity": 1.558772, "balance": 1.167135, "dry_up": 1.337046, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.023294, "annualized_volatility": 0.135992, "from_high_reference": -0.011796, "from_low_reference": 0.102246 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 65.789449, "fair_value_reference": 60.704972, "structural_low": 61.701298, "invalidation": "A 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-11.230086, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 42.682619, "energy": 40.075444, "activity_lines": [ 66.208667, 65.052869, 65.012524, 65.221122 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 67.510002, "volume": 32430, "typical_volume": 25661.1, "trend": 65.348894, "fair_value": 60.355182, "relative_strength": -10.516961, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 43.029851, "energy": 57.878807, "activity_lines": [ 66.897335, 65.587905, 65.222598, 65.369858 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 67.639999, "volume": 43327, "typical_volume": 26333.6, "trend": 65.49223, "fair_value": 60.442406, "relative_strength": -8.780787, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 41.350225, "energy": 67.594804, "activity_lines": [ 67.368667, 66.110842, 65.447044, 65.517671 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 66.980003, "volume": 20282, "typical_volume": 25621.2, "trend": 65.606615, "fair_value": 60.523179, "relative_strength": -9.263693, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.741047, "energy": 68.744052, "activity_lines": [ 67.365335, 66.455819, 65.611754, 65.613657 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 66.290001, "volume": 39712, "typical_volume": 26121.8, "trend": 65.697999, "fair_value": 60.607052, "relative_strength": -10.479413, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 32.153615, "energy": 38.720466, "activity_lines": [ 66.985335, 66.592547, 65.710819, 65.657746 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 68.010002, "volume": 42501, "typical_volume": 27265.7, "trend": 65.789449, "fair_value": 60.704972, "relative_strength": -10.471979, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.731527, "energy": 45.846333, "activity_lines": [ 67.262668, 66.985819, 65.96811, 65.806907 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }