{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9e9fc464-9e6a-46bd-8562-ee21861641f8", "symbol": "ITI", "name": "ITI Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 71.591, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -17.614, "architecture_energy": 35.862, "architecture_maturity": 2.864, "architecture_confidence": 58.726, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.14, "rotation_up": 14.64, "upward_expansion": 20.01, "deceleration": 54.67, "rotation_down": 59.52, "downward_expansion": 45.01 }, "activity_lines": [ 280.31333, 287.003637, 291.043048, 287.97471 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 282.399994, "trend_reference": 285.484667, "distance_from_trend": -0.010805, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 288.027756, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.019539, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.966245, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.025871, "excess_performance": 0.017838, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.010805, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.018367, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.019539, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.119552, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.039662, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.071662, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.025871, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.254589, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1399787, "relative_activity": 0.148657, "balance": 1.254589, "dry_up": 0.239281, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.055391, "annualized_volatility": 0.331453, "from_high_reference": -0.242591, "from_low_reference": 0.191561 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 285.484667, "fair_value_reference": 288.027756, "structural_low": 237.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.01548, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.017224, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.088699, "worst_return": -0.086287, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.171617, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.077086, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.832799, "worst_return": -0.054413, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.053709, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.03091, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.282067, "worst_return": -0.19623, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.053995, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.123918, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.168898, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.058867, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.059209, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Established", 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"trend": 287.191333, "fair_value": 285.904038, "relative_strength": -3.462955, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.305049, "energy": 23.763458, "activity_lines": [ 285.466667, 292.434548, 292.651525, 288.865957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 277.0, "volume": 647551, "typical_volume": 17729555.7, "trend": 286.023, "fair_value": 286.973269, "relative_strength": -5.227698, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.199433, "energy": 32.609416, "activity_lines": [ 281.169999, 289.122729, 291.672763, 288.208452 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 282.399994, "volume": 1399787, "typical_volume": 9416246.3, "trend": 285.484667, "fair_value": 288.027756, "relative_strength": -3.966245, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -17.614421, "energy": 35.861625, "activity_lines": [ 280.31333, 287.003637, 291.043048, 287.97471 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }