{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9ea80c50-45b4-4d6b-9875-c1702159923d", "symbol": "XMAS", "name": "Xtrackers MSCI EM Asia Screened Swap UCITS ETF 1C", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 83.319, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 9.202, "architecture_energy": 23.003, "architecture_maturity": 65.222, "architecture_confidence": 80.063, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 58.58, "rotation_up": 16.25, "upward_expansion": 46.3, "deceleration": 88.0, "rotation_down": 42.72, "downward_expansion": 28.96 }, "activity_lines": [ 7436.066667, 7614.872727, 7616.502381, 7407.560215 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 7505.0, "trend_reference": 7128.75, "distance_from_trend": 0.052779, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 5278.814231, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.421721, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 4.585759, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.155771, "excess_performance": 0.104536, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.052779, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.084875, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.421721, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.110724, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.045858, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.159874, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.155771, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.442453, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2297, "relative_activity": 1.053646, "balance": 0.442453, "dry_up": 1.740327, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.046041, "annualized_volatility": 0.263196, "from_high_reference": -0.102273, "from_low_reference": 0.399925 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7128.75, "fair_value_reference": 5278.814231, "structural_low": 6081.0, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.010962, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": 0.014169, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.154704, "worst_return": -0.044227, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.07409, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.030148, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.295955, "worst_return": -0.042078, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.096735, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.031555, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.324607, "worst_return": -0.051945, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.00625, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.094058, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.064944, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.131435, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": 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"typical_volume": 2180.05, "trend": 7128.75, "fair_value": 5278.814231, "relative_strength": 4.585759, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 9.202003, "energy": 23.002579, "activity_lines": [ 7436.066667, 7614.872727, 7616.502381, 7407.560215 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }