{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9ead37ed-1138-48e6-9641-6cf04f345cc4", "symbol": "002429", "name": "Shenzhen MTC Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 83.694, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.291, "architecture_energy": 80.001, "architecture_maturity": 22.497, "architecture_confidence": 80.824, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.3, "rotation_up": 8.21, "upward_expansion": 18.68, "deceleration": 37.02, "rotation_down": 78.92, "downward_expansion": 94.35 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.98, 8.876727, 9.95804, 10.201424 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 8.15, "trend_reference": 10.26718, "distance_from_trend": -0.206208, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 6.129084, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.329726, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.523233, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.158927, "excess_performance": -0.166326, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.206208, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.105681, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.329726, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.88638, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.065232, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.549074, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.158927, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.440224, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 383851013, "relative_activity": 0.761337, "balance": 0.440224, "dry_up": 0.812338, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.169535, "annualized_volatility": 0.694521, "from_high_reference": -0.408474, "from_low_reference": 0.823266 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.26718, "fair_value_reference": 6.129084, "structural_low": 7.05, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.043203, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.017797, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.207127, "worst_return": -0.008869, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.11043, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.01422, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.193764, "worst_return": 0.036054, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.481595, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.146071, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.504097, "worst_return": 0.069916, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.61425, 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"2025-08-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.074621, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.033333, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.182971, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.081991, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.160976, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.412782, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.15362, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.056409, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.329966, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.062581, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-07-28", "close": 5.069932, "volume": 99101666, "typical_volume": 147351434.4, "trend": 4.471347, "fair_value": 4.709689, "relative_strength": 28.968534, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.802414, "energy": 48.657575, 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11.153454, 10.813547 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 10.3, "volume": 856072447, "typical_volume": 606106603.9, "trend": 10.19618, "fair_value": 6.063853, "relative_strength": 14.421341, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 4.272477, "energy": 12.079122, "activity_lines": [ 10.514, 10.975928, 11.08519, 10.82775 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 7.96, "volume": 480595870, "typical_volume": 604343829.15, "trend": 10.223513, "fair_value": 6.081216, "relative_strength": -3.409492, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -41.724036, "energy": 40.754738, "activity_lines": [ 9.618, 10.349978, 10.796307, 10.68348 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.67, "volume": 421362811, "typical_volume": 587098108.75, "trend": 10.255513, "fair_value": 6.095864, "relative_strength": -7.769626, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -51.853141, "energy": 66.867993, "activity_lines": [ 8.784667, 9.755605, 10.492806, 10.518738 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.43, "volume": 352448671, "typical_volume": 534212882.25, "trend": 10.242846, "fair_value": 6.109585, "relative_strength": -9.735999, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -51.7421, "energy": 73.223813, "activity_lines": [ 8.152, 9.206449, 10.180399, 10.336447 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.15, "volume": 383851013, "typical_volume": 504179996.4, "trend": 10.26718, "fair_value": 6.129084, "relative_strength": -6.523233, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.291483, "energy": 80.001434, "activity_lines": [ 7.98, 8.876727, 9.95804, 10.201424 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }