{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9eaed839-375a-45eb-9f2b-2a08840e7d8a", "symbol": "NGI", "name": "Navigator Global Investments Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 70.742, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -14.482, "architecture_energy": 9.703, "architecture_maturity": 30.945, "architecture_confidence": 54.269, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 62.34, "rotation_up": 18.76, "upward_expansion": 15.45, "deceleration": 55.55, "rotation_down": 41.38, "downward_expansion": 60.78 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.427333, 2.431636, 2.436845, 2.429828 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 2.57, "trend_reference": 2.510041, "distance_from_trend": 0.023888, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.871397, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.373305, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.670179, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.128814, "excess_performance": -0.192519, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.023888, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.061447, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.373305, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.161547, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.026702, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.191854, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.128814, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.679467, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1794028, "relative_activity": 1.006594, "balance": 0.679467, "dry_up": 1.165023, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.071236, "annualized_volatility": 0.462429, "from_high_reference": -0.230539, "from_low_reference": 0.360842 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.510041, "fair_value_reference": 1.871397, "structural_low": 1.95, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": -0.036585, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.022199, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.113208, "worst_return": -0.1519, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.078702, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.074543, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.287833, "worst_return": -0.146341, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.095806, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.07778, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.5, "worst_return": -0.176527, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.232304, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.174474, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.590878, "worst_return": -0.245584, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-01-26", "end": "2024-02-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.06367, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-02-23", "end": "2024-07-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.319149, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.019211, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.093484, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.037736, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.025773, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.089238, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.093373, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.02356, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.505514, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.162055, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.139303, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.012552, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.011538, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 1.249049, "volume": 2641316, "typical_volume": 1191044.95, "trend": 1.023874, "fair_value": 1.205699, "relative_strength": 21.655404, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": 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] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.36, "volume": 2737680, "typical_volume": 2394460.05, "trend": 2.565041, "fair_value": 1.848907, "relative_strength": -4.799394, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.429283, "energy": 14.285883, "activity_lines": [ 2.439333, 2.443636, 2.419339, 2.453857 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.37, "volume": 1904802, "typical_volume": 2029267.3, "trend": 2.544708, "fair_value": 1.856397, "relative_strength": -4.555066, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.208101, "energy": 18.416531, "activity_lines": [ 2.414, 2.428, 2.420666, 2.441274 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.32, "volume": 1869058, "typical_volume": 1878892.95, "trend": 2.522708, "fair_value": 1.862957, "relative_strength": -8.961089, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.573215, "energy": 29.257571, "activity_lines": [ 2.372, 2.406182, 2.417327, 2.426776 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.57, "volume": 1794028, "typical_volume": 1782276.25, "trend": 2.510041, "fair_value": 1.871397, "relative_strength": -2.670179, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -14.482399, "energy": 9.703076, "activity_lines": [ 2.427333, 2.431636, 2.436845, 2.429828 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }