{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "9eaf3713-0174-406d-bfd0-c7f70abdb179",
    "symbol": "BANF",
    "name": "BancFirst Corporation",
    "exchange": "NASDAQ",
    "country": "US",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "QQQ",
    "stage": 1,
    "stage_name": "Basing",
    "phase": "1b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing",
    "transition": "stage_1_building",
    "transition_label": "Base still building",
    "confidence": 59.915,
    "architecture_regime": "balance",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Balance",
    "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 47.77,
    "architecture_energy": 24.268,
    "architecture_maturity": 35.977,
    "architecture_confidence": 66.386,
    "architecture_tenure": "Established",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 33.74,
        "rotation_up": 46.72,
        "upward_expansion": 74.89,
        "deceleration": 57.84,
        "rotation_down": 19.37,
        "downward_expansion": 1.56
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        114.162,
        114.109308,
        113.127639,
        112.434215
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Stable",
      "price_acceptance": 0.666667
    },
    "latest_close": 113.01,
    "trend_reference": 111.927351,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.009673,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 104.974123,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.076551,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -13.771539,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": -0.046368,
    "excess_performance": -0.233822,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.009673,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.012489,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.076551,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.015807,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.137715,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.066133,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.046368,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.602691,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 652640,
      "relative_activity": 0.858765,
      "balance": 1.602691,
      "dry_up": 0.93638,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 3
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.053554,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.203493,
      "from_high_reference": -0.174988,
      "from_low_reference": 0.118648
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 111.927351,
      "fair_value_reference": 104.974123,
      "structural_low": 101.023764,
      "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 15,
        "median_return": -0.014862,
        "positive_rate": 0.4,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.4,
        "median_excess_return": -0.026202,
        "regime_survival": 0.8,
        "best_return": 0.107454,
        "worst_return": -0.099598,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": -0.060019,
        "positive_rate": 0.25,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.25,
        "median_excess_return": -0.090817,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
        "best_return": 0.243269,
        "worst_return": -0.092032,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": -0.013243,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.127648,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.198514,
        "worst_return": -0.225,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.080649,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.209397,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.300805,
        "worst_return": -0.139508,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
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        "end": "2024-07-26",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.05082,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-08-02",
        "end": "2025-01-03",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.163714,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-01-10",
        "end": "2025-03-21",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.011454,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-03-28",
        "end": "2025-04-11",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.05771,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-04-18",
        "end": "2025-05-09",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.124156,
        "active": false
      },
      {
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        "label": "Rotation Up",
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        "return": 0.025983,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "end": "2025-08-08",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.061201,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2025-08-29",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.080266,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "end": "2025-10-24",
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        "return": -0.156871,
        "active": false
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        "return": 0.016994,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
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        "end": "2026-02-06",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.076129,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
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        "return": -0.1086,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
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        "return": 0.070781,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
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        "return": -0.031785,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
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        "direction": 8.257373,
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-24",
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        "fair_value": 102.454365,
        "relative_strength": -15.309587,
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        "date": "2026-05-01",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
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        "date": "2026-05-15",
        "close": 106.369278,
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        "fair_value": 103.169929,
        "relative_strength": -23.788179,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
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        "direction": 16.597752,
        "energy": 6.820947,
        "activity_lines": [
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        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "typical_volume": 652830.1,
        "trend": 110.480923,
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        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 8.791583,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
        "close": 109.845203,
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        "regime": "balance",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "trend": 110.554017,
        "fair_value": 103.644393,
        "relative_strength": -18.879707,
        "stage": 4,
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        "gate": "mixed",
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        "energy": 9.136042,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
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        "volume": 754039,
        "typical_volume": 675414.6,
        "trend": 110.743339,
        "fair_value": 103.817036,
        "relative_strength": -15.933176,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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        "fair_value": 103.989337,
        "relative_strength": -21.023996,
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "fair_value": 104.158849,
        "relative_strength": -14.321612,
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        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 45.939263,
        "energy": 26.257848,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 113.97,
        "volume": 857689,
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        "trend": 111.120992,
        "fair_value": 104.313913,
        "relative_strength": -14.51723,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 46.320533,
        "energy": 31.696258,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 114.08,
        "volume": 693520,
        "typical_volume": 800769.75,
        "trend": 111.181928,
        "fair_value": 104.46565,
        "relative_strength": -15.319942,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "up",
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        "energy": 33.584155,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 116.14,
        "volume": 662257,
        "typical_volume": 789239.65,
        "trend": 111.333992,
        "fair_value": 104.609639,
        "relative_strength": -9.37511,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 56.512572,
        "energy": 42.888322,
        "activity_lines": [
          114.535126,
          113.458252,
          112.405712,
          111.940193
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 116.58,
        "volume": 588847,
        "typical_volume": 782010.35,
        "trend": 111.595521,
        "fair_value": 104.744902,
        "relative_strength": -7.060209,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 56.672584,
        "energy": 45.424432,
        "activity_lines": [
          115.450527,
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          112.916696,
          112.278645
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 112.82,
        "volume": 942756,
        "typical_volume": 797003.1,
        "trend": 111.823143,
        "fair_value": 104.854292,
        "relative_strength": -10.032351,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 50.988068,
        "energy": 32.648778,
        "activity_lines": [
          114.731333,
          114.182765,
          113.03035,
          112.357644
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 113.01,
        "volume": 652640,
        "typical_volume": 759974.75,
        "trend": 111.927351,
        "fair_value": 104.974123,
        "relative_strength": -13.771539,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 47.769751,
        "energy": 24.268466,
        "activity_lines": [
          114.162,
          114.109308,
          113.127639,
          112.434215
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}