{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "9eb370fc-66c1-4084-8637-ae88b29506ba",
    "symbol": "GHTA",
    "name": "GOOSE HOLLOW TACTICAL ALLOCATION ETF",
    "exchange": "CBOE",
    "country": "US",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "SPY",
    "stage": 3,
    "stage_name": "Distribution",
    "phase": "3a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning",
    "transition": "stage_3_churning",
    "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact",
    "confidence": 66.052,
    "architecture_regime": "balance",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Balance",
    "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline",
    "architecture_gate": "mixed",
    "architecture_direction": -2.67,
    "architecture_energy": 2.077,
    "architecture_maturity": 34.966,
    "architecture_confidence": 65.464,
    "architecture_tenure": "Established",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 63.92,
        "rotation_up": 30.75,
        "upward_expansion": 15.32,
        "deceleration": 50.81,
        "rotation_down": 36.6,
        "downward_expansion": 40.99
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        30.520633,
        30.5307,
        30.541529,
        30.50147
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": -0.333333
    },
    "latest_close": 31.0825,
    "trend_reference": 30.530607,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.018077,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 27.808423,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.117737,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -8.68702,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.001857,
    "excess_performance": -0.123768,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.018077,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.006127,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.117737,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.022995,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.08687,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.008073,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.001857,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.968815,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 2602,
      "relative_activity": 0.172153,
      "balance": 0.968815,
      "dry_up": 0.526417,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 4
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.044917,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.082768,
      "from_high_reference": -0.163999,
      "from_low_reference": 0.140224
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 30.530607,
      "fair_value_reference": 27.808423,
      "structural_low": 27.26,
      "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 7,
        "median_return": 0.006794,
        "positive_rate": 0.857143,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.857143,
        "median_excess_return": -0.022423,
        "regime_survival": 0.714286,
        "best_return": 0.021367,
        "worst_return": -0.006827,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.031296,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": -0.046753,
        "regime_survival": 0.333333,
        "best_return": 0.042787,
        "worst_return": -0.009112,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.041662,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.10218,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.050451,
        "worst_return": 0.032872,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.110623,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.189835,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
        "best_return": 0.123007,
        "worst_return": 0.098239,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-05-17",
        "end": "2024-06-14",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.023767,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-06-21",
        "end": "2024-07-12",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.014771,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-07-19",
        "end": "2024-11-08",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.047817,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-11-15",
        "end": "2025-02-07",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.037341,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-02-14",
        "end": "2025-03-28",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.021451,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-04-04",
        "end": "2025-04-11",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.00479,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-04-18",
        "end": "2025-05-02",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.050778,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-05-09",
        "end": "2025-05-23",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.019202,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-05-30",
        "end": "2025-10-03",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.045722,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2025-12-05",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.029031,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "end": "2026-03-13",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.001741,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "return": 0.000108,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
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        "color": "orange",
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        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.019927,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2026-04-24",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.024679,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
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        "relative_strength": -6.813533,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -5.968526,
        "energy": 16.400602,
        "activity_lines": [
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-24",
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        "typical_volume": 10919.0,
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        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
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        "fair_value": 27.194252,
        "relative_strength": -7.936076,
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        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "mixed",
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        "energy": 14.957238,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "typical_volume": 10823.25,
        "trend": 30.238546,
        "fair_value": 27.24225,
        "relative_strength": -7.879671,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
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        "energy": 35.226387,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
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        "typical_volume": 11720.35,
        "trend": 30.279963,
        "fair_value": 27.287735,
        "relative_strength": -9.097648,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 39.406361,
        "energy": 28.388187,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "typical_volume": 12687.95,
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        "relative_strength": -9.763408,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 46.342829,
        "energy": 26.440141,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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        "typical_volume": 13956.9,
        "trend": 30.344674,
        "fair_value": 27.379453,
        "relative_strength": -10.712192,
        "stage": 3,
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        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "up",
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        "energy": 23.964895,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
        "close": 30.607,
        "volume": 15712,
        "typical_volume": 14073.95,
        "trend": 30.374111,
        "fair_value": 27.424672,
        "relative_strength": -7.953872,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 42.624948,
        "energy": 19.143756,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "close": 30.7998,
        "volume": 6706,
        "typical_volume": 14280.55,
        "trend": 30.407731,
        "fair_value": 27.47011,
        "relative_strength": -7.595693,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 47.482727,
        "energy": 21.291722,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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        "fair_value": 27.515484,
        "relative_strength": -8.616932,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 31.520084,
        "energy": 14.093456,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "close": 30.6389,
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        "trend": 30.453448,
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        "relative_strength": -6.156793,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 31.397552,
        "energy": 13.930389,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 30.6961,
        "volume": 7591,
        "typical_volume": 14399.0,
        "trend": 30.466713,
        "fair_value": 27.606096,
        "relative_strength": -7.698234,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "up",
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        "energy": 17.810501,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "volume": 15414,
        "typical_volume": 15026.05,
        "trend": 30.47994,
        "fair_value": 27.647926,
        "relative_strength": -9.409653,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 28.368198,
        "energy": 10.727786,
        "activity_lines": [
          30.599107,
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          30.517077,
          30.51371
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 30.4319,
        "volume": 2800,
        "typical_volume": 14521.55,
        "trend": 30.499183,
        "fair_value": 27.688732,
        "relative_strength": -7.768751,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 25.809439,
        "energy": 10.206489,
        "activity_lines": [
          30.528633,
          30.580576,
          30.518196,
          30.510611
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 30.0575,
        "volume": 15141,
        "typical_volume": 14888.25,
        "trend": 30.503433,
        "fair_value": 27.725913,
        "relative_strength": -8.118922,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -36.982516,
        "energy": 16.466462,
        "activity_lines": [
          30.357887,
          30.482678,
          30.486793,
          30.482115
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 30.23,
        "volume": 11283,
        "typical_volume": 15161.75,
        "trend": 30.509063,
        "fair_value": 27.764394,
        "relative_strength": -8.338424,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -35.33171,
        "energy": 17.832999,
        "activity_lines": [
          30.283547,
          30.426371,
          30.474133,
          30.464474
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 31.0825,
        "volume": 2602,
        "typical_volume": 15114.45,
        "trend": 30.530607,
        "fair_value": 27.808423,
        "relative_strength": -8.68702,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -2.670464,
        "energy": 2.077469,
        "activity_lines": [
          30.520633,
          30.5307,
          30.541529,
          30.50147
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}