{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9ebb9def-acb1-46ac-a935-3628b93e89f5", "symbol": "4290", "name": "Al Khaleej Training and Education Company", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.579, "architecture_energy": 80.0, "architecture_maturity": 83.02, "architecture_confidence": 93.558, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 4.72, "rotation_up": 14.35, "upward_expansion": 19.24, "deceleration": 38.44, "rotation_down": 72.56, "downward_expansion": 94.9 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.731333, 14.184909, 14.793714, 15.473226 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 13.91, "trend_reference": 16.614, "distance_from_trend": -0.162754, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 25.114936, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.446146, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -28.025601, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.296409, "excess_performance": -0.264579, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.162754, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.133544, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.446146, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.067809, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.280256, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -6e-06, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.296409, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.525668, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1002664, "relative_activity": 0.663747, "balance": 0.525668, "dry_up": 0.726995, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.060222, "annualized_volatility": 0.236071, "from_high_reference": -0.526549, "from_low_reference": 0.059406 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.614, "fair_value_reference": 25.114936, "structural_low": 13.13, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 33, "median_return": -0.005642, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.026682, "regime_survival": 0.848485, "best_return": 0.237895, "worst_return": -0.131484, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.054191, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": 0.018862, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.507895, "worst_return": -0.166746, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.064493, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.069927, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.926316, "worst_return": -0.273804, "sufficient": true }, { 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0.100189, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.065517, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.009449, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.089574, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.02627, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.062395, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": 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16.349979 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 14.17, "volume": 1252423, "typical_volume": 1455682.85, "trend": 17.267333, "fair_value": 25.262692, "relative_strength": -28.160164, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.277909, "energy": 78.199913, "activity_lines": [ 14.56, 14.876909, 15.40281, 16.13686 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.72, "volume": 685621, "typical_volume": 1425150.9, "trend": 17.045333, "fair_value": 25.209872, "relative_strength": -30.192056, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.535244, "energy": 89.274252, "activity_lines": [ 14.190667, 14.631091, 15.191381, 15.908 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.2, "volume": 1452119, "typical_volume": 1467345.6, "trend": 16.803667, "fair_value": 25.153205, "relative_strength": -30.760853, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.47191, "energy": 91.986928, "activity_lines": [ 13.775333, 14.324909, 14.948286, 15.659914 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.91, "volume": 1002664, "typical_volume": 1510611.15, "trend": 16.614, "fair_value": 25.114936, "relative_strength": -28.025601, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.579241, "energy": 80.000077, "activity_lines": [ 13.731333, 14.184909, 14.793714, 15.473226 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }