{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9ebc9562-1ae6-409b-b64f-1fecf3bb3188", "symbol": "GKL", "name": "Global Knafaim Leasing Ltd", "exchange": "TLV", "country": "IL", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "TA35.TA", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 45.459, "architecture_energy": 26.398, "architecture_maturity": 29.164, "architecture_confidence": 59.545, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.21, "rotation_up": 47.31, "upward_expansion": 64.59, "deceleration": 58.31, "rotation_down": 17.42, "downward_expansion": 10.26 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.961267, 0.944164, 0.957695, 0.935983 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.998, "trend_reference": 0.895767, "distance_from_trend": 0.114129, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.727064, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.372644, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 5.634947, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.345013, "excess_performance": 0.316113, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.114129, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.055209, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.372644, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.19787, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.056349, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.059048, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.345013, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.26312, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 531314, "relative_activity": 0.572541, "balance": 0.26312, "dry_up": 0.19983, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.071682, "annualized_volatility": 0.466115, "from_high_reference": -0.154237, "from_low_reference": 0.421652 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.895767, "fair_value_reference": 0.727064, "structural_low": 0.705, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.031592, "positive_rate": 0.7, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": -0.005728, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.052347, "worst_return": -0.063158, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.004556, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.095365, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.056701, "worst_return": -0.051256, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.0394, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.142377, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.092784, "worst_return": -0.09728, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.011598, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.255737, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.015009, "worst_return": -0.139121, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.021429, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.013986, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.338384, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.012887, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.019634, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.034483, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.00369, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.055624, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.038915, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.035539, "active": false }, { "regime": 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0.926467, 0.938, 0.949676, 0.916374 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.947, "volume": 51661, "typical_volume": 920336.25, "trend": 0.876067, "fair_value": 0.719186, "relative_strength": -0.167247, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 27.926351, "energy": 16.11256, "activity_lines": [ 0.936533, 0.933764, 0.952024, 0.921295 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.924, "volume": 29301, "typical_volume": 909518.05, "trend": 0.8815, "fair_value": 0.721686, "relative_strength": -4.716918, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.792403, "energy": 15.559492, "activity_lines": [ 0.9368, 0.927927, 0.95141, 0.924387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.951, "volume": 129489, "typical_volume": 910460.25, "trend": 0.887767, "fair_value": 0.724346, "relative_strength": 0.828606, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.511214, "energy": 18.251508, "activity_lines": [ 0.9422, 0.931327, 0.952705, 0.928871 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.998, "volume": 531314, "typical_volume": 927993.15, "trend": 0.895767, "fair_value": 0.727064, "relative_strength": 5.634947, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.459022, "energy": 26.397918, "activity_lines": [ 0.961267, 0.944164, 0.957695, 0.935983 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }