{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9ebffd90-862c-43a9-8e55-a3de25f56e6e", "symbol": "BANSWRAS", "name": "Banswara Syntex Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 62.371, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 30.599, "architecture_energy": 15.002, "architecture_maturity": 32.745, "architecture_confidence": 88.32, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.52, "rotation_up": 25.9, "upward_expansion": 53.53, "deceleration": 88.8, "rotation_down": 27.28, "downward_expansion": 19.53 }, "activity_lines": [ 125.155993, 126.980994, 125.621764, 122.608616 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 123.879997, "trend_reference": 118.43982, "distance_from_trend": 0.045932, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 136.78526, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.094347, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 3.995372, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.096477, "excess_performance": 0.140186, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.045932, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.033987, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.094347, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.017795, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.039954, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012409, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.096477, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.120254, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 145595, "relative_activity": 0.807573, "balance": 1.120254, "dry_up": 1.453854, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.087587, "annualized_volatility": 0.364674, "from_high_reference": -0.13308, "from_low_reference": 0.321669 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 118.43982, "fair_value_reference": 136.78526, "structural_low": 93.730003, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.024232, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.047451, "regime_survival": 0.533333, "best_return": 0.281756, "worst_return": -0.142316, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.034548, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.048855, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.461211, "worst_return": -0.164013, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.069143, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.038615, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.320954, "worst_return": -0.170911, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.008644, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.034097, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.045058, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.051075, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.091493, "active": 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[ 132.235543, 129.103172, 123.423367, 120.088859 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 118.792755, "volume": 337732, "typical_volume": 162549.1, "trend": 116.553367, "fair_value": 137.280219, "relative_strength": 0.358036, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.526963, "energy": 35.062034, "activity_lines": [ 128.170577, 127.692977, 123.387494, 120.243277 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 130.343567, "volume": 481249, "typical_volume": 182270.9, "trend": 117.131153, "fair_value": 137.171563, "relative_strength": 9.733458, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.151298, "energy": 27.129723, "activity_lines": [ 128.167698, 128.364334, 124.426877, 121.132968 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 127.940002, "volume": 167952, "typical_volume": 180756.3, "trend": 117.583486, "fair_value": 137.052917, "relative_strength": 10.516404, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.562423, "energy": 20.46423, "activity_lines": [ 127.511393, 128.476797, 125.163427, 121.830313 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 123.660004, "volume": 253648, "typical_volume": 182639.15, "trend": 117.89282, "fair_value": 136.914112, "relative_strength": 4.378716, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.965681, "energy": 18.005739, "activity_lines": [ 126.014702, 127.674714, 125.409834, 122.222346 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 123.879997, "volume": 145595, "typical_volume": 180287.0, "trend": 118.43982, "fair_value": 136.78526, "relative_strength": 3.995372, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.599032, "energy": 15.001552, "activity_lines": [ 125.155993, 126.980994, 125.621764, 122.608616 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }