{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9ec322f8-11b6-4aea-8c58-d854de14cec9", "symbol": "SSL", "name": "Sasol Ltd", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 73.782, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 20.085, "architecture_energy": 18.527, "architecture_maturity": 40.656, "architecture_confidence": 79.897, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.32, "rotation_up": 41.2, "upward_expansion": 51.83, "deceleration": 73.65, "rotation_down": 14.39, "downward_expansion": 22.49 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.39, 11.126545, 11.696143, 11.60772 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 11.07, "trend_reference": 10.942333, "distance_from_trend": 0.011667, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 7.824711, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.414749, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 10.152353, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.504076, "excess_performance": 0.378451, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.011667, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.169469, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.414749, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.229931, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.101524, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.490903, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.504076, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.700462, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5713887, "relative_activity": 0.666499, "balance": 0.700462, "dry_up": 0.690221, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.099286, "annualized_volatility": 0.575228, "from_high_reference": -0.229377, "from_low_reference": 1.320755 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.942333, "fair_value_reference": 7.824711, "structural_low": 6.91, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.073744, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.094026, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.286496, "worst_return": -0.112057, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.121821, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.071136, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.15146, "worst_return": -0.082406, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.440428, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.425731, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.218978, "worst_return": -0.222315, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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5738210, "typical_volume": 9907258.7, "trend": 10.634333, "fair_value": 7.846087, "relative_strength": 25.827931, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": 1.888325, "energy": 17.678472, "activity_lines": [ 11.006, 11.174545, 11.840476, 11.521699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.7, "volume": 5737860, "typical_volume": 9163547.15, "trend": 10.802333, "fair_value": 7.840058, "relative_strength": 21.683861, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 19.559938, "energy": 14.064359, "activity_lines": [ 11.370667, 11.192727, 11.799238, 11.590452 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.07, "volume": 5713887, "typical_volume": 8572991.45, "trend": 10.942333, "fair_value": 7.824711, "relative_strength": 10.152353, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 20.085083, "energy": 18.526641, "activity_lines": [ 11.39, 11.126545, 11.696143, 11.60772 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }