{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9ec36203-e1f6-4d24-9916-0c094ea8dd48", "symbol": "EGEHE", "name": "BNP Paribas Easy ECPI Global ESG Hydrogen Economy UCITS ETF EUR Cap", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 67.292, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 12.958, "architecture_energy": 19.703, "architecture_maturity": 65.675, "architecture_confidence": 81.759, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.8, "rotation_up": 19.92, "upward_expansion": 48.7, "deceleration": 85.08, "rotation_down": 36.17, "downward_expansion": 26.7 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.300667, 14.442, 14.503629, 14.258348 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 14.384, "trend_reference": 13.918667, "distance_from_trend": 0.033432, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 10.351885, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.389505, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.127141, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.087226, "excess_performance": -0.083666, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.033432, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.071172, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.389505, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.053402, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.031271, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.129508, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.087226, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.918977, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5067, "relative_activity": 0.95096, "balance": 3.918977, "dry_up": 0.458683, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.027648, "annualized_volatility": 0.153761, "from_high_reference": -0.061709, "from_low_reference": 0.399494 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.918667, "fair_value_reference": 10.351885, "structural_low": 12.302, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.019415, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.000431, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.098268, "worst_return": -0.025322, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.093312, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.021307, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.150551, "worst_return": 0.036073, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.018864, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.049237, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.018864, "worst_return": -0.018864, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, 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"relative_strength": 0.106173, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.659616, "energy": 42.524466, "activity_lines": [ 14.6876, 14.758364, 14.452924, 14.118473 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 14.258, "volume": 2533, "typical_volume": 5982.05, "trend": 13.7014, "fair_value": 10.265936, "relative_strength": -0.145431, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.704283, "energy": 27.137524, "activity_lines": [ 14.5364, 14.6644, 14.47021, 14.160335 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.346, "volume": 1097, "typical_volume": 5873.5, "trend": 13.789733, "fair_value": 10.29291, "relative_strength": 0.457701, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.908081, "energy": 23.148305, "activity_lines": [ 14.437733, 14.588218, 14.49259, 14.201923 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.142, "volume": 1079, "typical_volume": 5209.0, "trend": 13.861667, "fair_value": 10.321154, "relative_strength": -1.795902, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 9.969462, "energy": 19.616263, "activity_lines": [ 14.3132, 14.484436, 14.489524, 14.224649 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.384, "volume": 5067, "typical_volume": 5328.3, "trend": 13.918667, "fair_value": 10.351885, "relative_strength": -3.127141, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 12.957999, "energy": 19.702554, "activity_lines": [ 14.300667, 14.442, 14.503629, 14.258348 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }