{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9ecb1cb1-ff91-43ff-ac81-0666772c0cd8", "symbol": "00632R", "name": "Yuanta Daily Taiwan 50 Bear -1X ETF", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -48.037, "architecture_energy": 40.472, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 83.403, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.1, "rotation_up": 27.88, "upward_expansion": 23.92, "deceleration": 47.0, "rotation_down": 36.01, "downward_expansion": 62.59 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.472667, 10.397273, 10.702905, 11.392839 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 10.35, "trend_reference": 12.398667, "distance_from_trend": -0.165233, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.764231, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.120214, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -51.451504, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.301619, "excess_performance": -0.680931, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.165233, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.152035, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.120214, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.110688, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.514515, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.085473, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.301619, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.604498, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1193335561, "relative_activity": 1.914004, "balance": 0.604498, "dry_up": 1.835283, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.058789, "annualized_volatility": 0.290762, "from_high_reference": -0.505495, "from_low_reference": 0.056122 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.398667, "fair_value_reference": 11.764231, "structural_low": 9.8, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 43, "median_return": -0.015625, "positive_rate": 0.348837, "directional_follow_through": 0.627907, "median_excess_return": -0.027624, "regime_survival": 0.906977, "best_return": 5.686391, "worst_return": -0.173223, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.075472, "positive_rate": 0.266667, "directional_follow_through": 0.733333, "median_excess_return": -0.127132, "regime_survival": 0.733333, "best_return": 5.934912, "worst_return": -0.205026, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.111272, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.199893, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 5.711765, "worst_return": -0.300926, "sufficient": 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"relative_strength": -51.121519, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.328313, "energy": 61.962764, "activity_lines": [ 10.370667, 10.390182, 11.057524, 11.84772 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.57, "volume": 838486667, "typical_volume": 537918878.25, "trend": 12.8, "fair_value": 11.691474, "relative_strength": -52.232015, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.525576, "energy": 55.323789, "activity_lines": [ 10.467333, 10.399091, 10.93319, 11.689806 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.44, "volume": 1641420743, "typical_volume": 582844668.7, "trend": 12.593, "fair_value": 11.727885, "relative_strength": -51.033951, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.373739, "energy": 43.521676, "activity_lines": [ 10.484667, 10.400545, 10.813381, 11.537548 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.35, "volume": 1193335561, "typical_volume": 623475864.55, "trend": 12.398667, "fair_value": 11.764231, "relative_strength": -51.451504, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.036733, "energy": 40.472385, "activity_lines": [ 10.472667, 10.397273, 10.702905, 11.392839 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }