{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9ed1a5e8-cadf-4c84-a66a-b4cbd22db845", "symbol": "605555", "name": "Ningbo Dechang Electrical Machinery Made Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.801, "architecture_energy": 70.285, "architecture_maturity": 57.258, "architecture_confidence": 86.309, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 4.03, "rotation_up": 12.69, "upward_expansion": 14.78, "deceleration": 41.35, "rotation_down": 73.12, "downward_expansion": 90.45 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.543333, 12.157277, 13.443289, 14.253134 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 12.1, "trend_reference": 15.428322, "distance_from_trend": -0.215728, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 15.625867, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.225643, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -25.804935, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.32703, "excess_performance": -0.283826, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.215728, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.102698, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.225643, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.272659, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.258049, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.127697, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.32703, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.527451, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 20322518, "relative_activity": 0.737537, "balance": 0.527451, "dry_up": 1.005101, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.128458, "annualized_volatility": 0.592956, "from_high_reference": -0.415459, "from_low_reference": 0.161228 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.428322, "fair_value_reference": 15.625867, "structural_low": 10.42, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.012232, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.363636, "median_excess_return": 0.004144, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.205162, "worst_return": -0.22894, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.123775, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.002417, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.290827, "worst_return": -0.303986, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.429872, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.311035, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.616908, "worst_return": 0.104224, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.166073, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.039216, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.019627, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.003151, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.102469, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 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"volume": 34124248, "typical_volume": 27096124.1, "trend": 15.850322, "fair_value": 15.644507, "relative_strength": -34.161677, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.851746, "energy": 85.655161, "activity_lines": [ 11.642, 12.751992, 13.982809, 14.764444 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.46, "volume": 25750263, "typical_volume": 27432236.6, "trend": 15.634988, "fair_value": 15.631206, "relative_strength": -28.260273, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.004081, "energy": 79.234505, "activity_lines": [ 11.478, 12.352946, 13.67143, 14.481198 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.1, "volume": 20322518, "typical_volume": 27554575.05, "trend": 15.428322, "fair_value": 15.625867, "relative_strength": -25.804935, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.801469, "energy": 70.285152, "activity_lines": [ 11.543333, 12.157277, 13.443289, 14.253134 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }