{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9ed5425d-cb23-444a-90b3-e2009e514d56", "symbol": "ELD", "name": "WISDOMTREE TRUST EMERGING MKTS LOCAL DEBT FD ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 25.869, "architecture_energy": 10.993, "architecture_maturity": 40.174, "architecture_confidence": 54.133, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.13, "rotation_up": 37.48, "upward_expansion": 32.42, "deceleration": 60.5, "rotation_down": 35.5, "downward_expansion": 24.75 }, "activity_lines": [ 28.604442, 28.596776, 28.565408, 28.541909 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 28.935, "trend_reference": 28.598749, "distance_from_trend": 0.011758, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 25.61845, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.129459, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.719808, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.010313, "excess_performance": -0.135938, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.011758, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006098, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.129459, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011932, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.087198, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011158, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.010313, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.735549, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 150789, "relative_activity": 0.81345, "balance": 1.735549, "dry_up": 0.491611, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.020208, "annualized_volatility": 0.106292, "from_high_reference": -0.025343, "from_low_reference": 0.083881 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 28.598749, "fair_value_reference": 25.61845, "structural_low": 26.70933, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.003395, "positive_rate": 0.52381, "directional_follow_through": 0.52381, "median_excess_return": -0.015715, "regime_survival": 0.52381, "best_return": 0.029641, "worst_return": -0.069447, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.005067, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.024385, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.044686, "worst_return": -0.118977, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.008597, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.112904, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.064857, "worst_return": -0.114458, 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false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.005509, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.000435, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.015716, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.027737, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.010463, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", 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"fair_value": 25.528969, "relative_strength": -7.262521, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 1.207463, "energy": 1.751582, "activity_lines": [ 28.601913, 28.586907, 28.526609, 28.549405 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 28.116574, "volume": 78214, "typical_volume": 193406.9, "trend": 28.58167, "fair_value": 25.553501, "relative_strength": -7.614589, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.932089, "energy": 18.636214, "activity_lines": [ 28.430652, 28.51218, 28.49932, 28.518908 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 28.5891, "volume": 67058, "typical_volume": 189681.45, "trend": 28.585907, "fair_value": 25.584566, "relative_strength": -6.876242, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -26.254699, "energy": 12.814822, "activity_lines": [ 28.465367, 28.525306, 28.517836, 28.519387 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 28.935, "volume": 150789, "typical_volume": 185369.75, "trend": 28.598749, "fair_value": 25.61845, "relative_strength": -8.719808, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 25.868564, "energy": 10.99342, "activity_lines": [ 28.604442, 28.596776, 28.565408, 28.541909 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }