{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9ed8d742-66b0-4dc5-8215-5b22898045e3", "symbol": "SMWB", "name": "SimilarWeb Ltd", "exchange": "NYSE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "model_version": "ta-0.1.0", "as_of_week": "2026-07-31", "benchmark": "SPY", "history_weeks": 273, "chart_window_weeks": 156, "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "stage_color": "blue", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "stage_age_weeks": 7, "hard_stage_exit": false, "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "transition_score": 76.682, "is_transition_watch": true, "confidence": 87.355, "composite_score": 80.742, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_color": "green", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 78.765, "architecture_energy": 85.946, "architecture_maturity": 22.0, "architecture_confidence": 80.261, "architecture_age_weeks": 1, "is_reacceleration_watch": false, "architecture": { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.765, "energy": 85.946, "maturity": 22.0, "confidence": 80.261, "confirmation": 90.127, "age_weeks": 1, "candidate": null, "candidate_weeks": 0, "hard_reversal": false, "reacceleration_watch": false, "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Activity Lines are positively ordered above the 30-week Trend Line, with rising slopes and price acceptance. Fan expansion measures the energy of the move; contraction inside this regime warns that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.61, "rotation_up": 81.08, "upward_expansion": 95.3, "deceleration": 43.52, "rotation_down": 9.65, "downward_expansion": 19.63 }, "activity_lines": { "5": 6.759333, "10": 6.201091, "20": 5.134857, "30": 4.58557 }, "activity_slopes": { "5": 1.550989, "10": 1.608014, "20": 1.309172, "30": 0.71866 }, "bullish_order": 1.0, "bearish_order": 0.0, "fan_width_atr": 2.491244, "fan_width_change_4": 0.451465, "fan_width_percentile": 0.778846, "fast_slow_gap_atr": 1.856601, "fast_slow_gap_change_4": 0.565585, "price_acceptance": 0.833333, "current_fan_distance_atr": 0.470645, "accepted_above": 0.833333, "accepted_below": 0.0, "crossing_density": 0.25 }, "interpretation": { "headline": "Price is repairing upward toward current Fair Value.", "body": "The market remains below the long-term Fair Value anchor, so the recovery stays in Stage 1. A narrowing gap, improving relative strength, range compression and eventual resistance absorption determine whether it can graduate to Stage 2.", "phase": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "transition_context": "The evidence score for the next canonical transition is 77/100." }, "latest_close": 7.17, "sma_30": 4.313667, "distance_from_sma_30": 0.662159, "sma_30_slope": -0.13066, "fair_value": 7.543077, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.04946, "fair_value_gap_change_13": 0.540399, "is_fair_value_repair": true, "mansfield_rs": 7.951298, "mansfield_rs_change_13": 66.141845, "range_position_52": 0.580305, "returns": { "13": 1.283439, "26": 0.3762, "52": -0.093552 }, "relative_returns": { "26": 0.290879, "52": -0.308387 }, "stage_scores": { "1": 46.6, "2": 44.0, "3": 23.45, "4": 26.85 }, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs 30-week average", "positive": true, "value": 0.662159, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "30-week slope", "positive": false, "value": -0.13066, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.04946, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "13-week Fair Value gap", "positive": true, "value": 0.540399, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Mansfield RS vs SPY", "positive": true, "value": 0.079513, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "13-week RS change", "positive": true, "value": 0.661418, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "26-week price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.3762, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "13-week volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.84571, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3084301, "ratio_20": 0.824117, "up_down_ratio_13": 2.84571, "dry_up_ratio": 1.237867, "accumulation_weeks": 6, "distribution_weeks": 3 }, "base": { "high_26": 7.54, "low_26": 2.22, "depth": 0.70557, "compression": 0.674812, "breakout_distance": -0.049072 }, "risk": { "atr_percent": 0.121696, "annualized_volatility": 0.915624, "drawdown_from_52_high": 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"architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 78.764705, "architecture_energy": 85.945625, "activity_5": 6.759333, "activity_10": 6.201091, "activity_20": 5.134857, "activity_30": 4.58557 } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed weekly OHLCV", "trend": "30-week simple moving average; slope compares the current value with ten completed weeks earlier", "fair_value": "current horizontal Fair Value is the arithmetic mean of up to 156 completed weekly closes; Stage 1 repair measures whether price is below and rising toward that anchor", "relative_strength": "Mansfield-style relative performance line: ticker/SPY divided by its trailing 52-week mean, minus one", "classification": "Trend Architecture uses the Activity Line position as a direction gate, then classifies ordering, four-week slopes, ATR-normalized fan width, fast/slow rotation and six-week price acceptance. Ordinary regime changes require two completed observations; a fully aligned reversal beyond the fan can change immediately.", "architecture_boundary": "The green/red/orange Trend gate is derived from the same Activity Lines and is therefore not counted as an independent vote. Relative strength and volume alter confirmation, while point-in-time Fair Value supplies context rather than determining the regime.", "admissibility": "Stage 2 cannot persist when price is more than 5% below the 30-week average or 8% below current Fair Value, the ten-week average slope is below -2%, Mansfield RS is below -8, or the 26-week return is below -15%. Stage 4 requires price no more than 5% above the average, RS no higher than +8, and at least one deterioration test: slope at or below +1.5%, 13-week return at or below -10%, or 26-week return at or below -12%. These are exit boundaries, not entry signals.", "confidence": "separation between the leading and runner-up stage evidence scores; not forecast probability" }, "historical_outcomes": [ { "weeks": 4, "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.023813, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.06334, "stage_survival": 0.5625, "best_return": 0.39479, "worst_return": -0.257835, "sufficient": true }, { "weeks": 13, "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.14578, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.220425, "stage_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.275641, "worst_return": -0.262369, "sufficient": true }, { "weeks": 26, "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.02509, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.141865, "stage_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.318627, "worst_return": -0.750722, "sufficient": true }, { "weeks": 52, "sample_count": 2, 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"directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.192108, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.705562, "worst_return": -0.56202, "sufficient": true }, { "weeks": 26, "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.187866, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.178403, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.083908, "worst_return": -0.73065, "sufficient": false }, { "weeks": 52, "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.071248, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.250532, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.06834, "worst_return": -0.074155, "sufficient": false } ], "architecture_ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-08-02", "weeks": 3, "return": -0.107246, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-08-23", 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"2025-09-12", "weeks": 2, "return": 0.039095, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-10", "weeks": 4, "return": -0.133127, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-14", "weeks": 5, "return": -0.134276, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-19", "weeks": 5, "return": -0.066845, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-06-05", "weeks": 24, "return": -0.431373, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-07-24", "weeks": 7, "return": 0.436073, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", 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