{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9edb41e9-4c65-4bf0-9f83-637fbc08e62b", "symbol": "VUG", "name": "Vanguard Growth Index Fund ETF Shares", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -58.333, "architecture_energy": 85.417, "architecture_maturity": 95.0, "architecture_confidence": 93.721, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.66, "rotation_up": 28.0, "upward_expansion": 32.5, "deceleration": 43.0, "rotation_down": 56.67, "downward_expansion": 84.83 }, "activity_lines": [ 1499.601335, 1495.532033, 1811.246703, 2974.05816 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 1545.0, "trend_reference": 4578.664518, "distance_from_trend": -0.662565, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6641.153289, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.76736, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -76.560605, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.808039, "excess_performance": -0.753372, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.662565, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.349023, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.76736, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.017339, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.765606, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.068639, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.808039, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.873551, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 747, "relative_activity": 0.693915, "balance": 0.873551, "dry_up": 0.671389, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.030479, "annualized_volatility": 2.455331, "from_high_reference": -0.836718, "from_low_reference": 0.103571 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4578.664518, "fair_value_reference": 6641.153289, "structural_low": 1400.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.016447, "positive_rate": 0.578947, "directional_follow_through": 0.421053, "median_excess_return": 0.033988, "regime_survival": 0.842105, "best_return": 0.115916, "worst_return": -0.819201, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.021943, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.016135, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.204293, "worst_return": -0.810056, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.048208, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.004479, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.246504, "worst_return": -0.143886, "sufficient": false }, { 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.88339, "energy": 93.309187, "activity_lines": [ 1485.136003, 1491.917057, 2148.979355, 3417.33065 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1470.0, "volume": 985, "typical_volume": 1055.7, "trend": 4822.038672, "fair_value": 6661.904672, "relative_strength": -78.223575, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.062531, "energy": 90.921886, "activity_lines": [ 1479.535335, 1486.575841, 1960.587198, 3185.48001 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1545.0, "volume": 747, "typical_volume": 1076.5, "trend": 4578.664518, "fair_value": 6641.153289, "relative_strength": -76.560605, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.333333, "energy": 85.416667, "activity_lines": [ 1499.601335, 1495.532033, 1811.246703, 2974.05816 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }