{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9eddd5be-a052-4d4e-ab6e-99fa4c540057", "symbol": "SCT", "name": "Scott Technology Limited", "exchange": "NZE", "country": "NZ", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NZ50", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -7.169, "architecture_energy": 15.619, "architecture_maturity": 50.189, "architecture_confidence": 65.938, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.26, "rotation_up": 17.62, "upward_expansion": 20.97, "deceleration": 69.55, "rotation_down": 52.41, "downward_expansion": 34.63 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.515333, 2.562909, 2.529769, 2.505424 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 2.49, "trend_reference": 2.520452, "distance_from_trend": -0.012082, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.398556, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.038124, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.756175, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.113541, "excess_performance": -0.141814, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.012082, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.028253, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.038124, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.05158, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.047562, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.065658, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.113541, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.705496, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 13266, "relative_activity": 0.329661, "balance": 0.705496, "dry_up": 1.433668, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.059005, "annualized_volatility": 0.39322, "from_high_reference": -0.205244, "from_low_reference": 0.320777 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.520452, "fair_value_reference": 2.398556, "structural_low": 2.160714, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.005499, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.000218, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.150769, "worst_return": -0.150376, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.086047, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.04223, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.163636, "worst_return": -0.172535, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.123375, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.056937, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.24973, "worst_return": -0.258515, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.224666, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.183604, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.171494, "worst_return": -0.277837, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-10-27", "end": "2023-12-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.04799, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-12-08", "end": "2024-01-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.053413, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-02-02", "end": "2024-02-16", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.003164, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-02-23", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.294986, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.10177, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.021164, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.1253, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.004902, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.412063, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.176057, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.061947, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.026231, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.082143, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.004, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 3.139179, "volume": 59984, "typical_volume": 86927.0, "trend": 2.705872, "fair_value": 2.417884, "relative_strength": 22.040108, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", 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"energy": 36.581322, "activity_lines": [ 2.662, 2.613273, 2.51215, 2.515264 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.57, "volume": 58038, "typical_volume": 37024.4, "trend": 2.552351, "fair_value": 2.409588, "relative_strength": 0.139697, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 26.85262, "energy": 24.407287, "activity_lines": [ 2.628, 2.615636, 2.522479, 2.516058 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.5, "volume": 89322, "typical_volume": 39720.55, "trend": 2.542708, "fair_value": 2.405257, "relative_strength": -3.489389, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 8.908581, "energy": 11.716748, "activity_lines": [ 2.586, 2.602, 2.526624, 2.51268 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.47, "volume": 70145, "typical_volume": 41890.25, "trend": 2.529774, "fair_value": 2.401551, "relative_strength": -4.372476, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -2.656668, "energy": 6.0504, "activity_lines": [ 2.542, 2.581818, 2.527653, 2.50799 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.49, "volume": 13266, "typical_volume": 40241.35, "trend": 2.520452, "fair_value": 2.398556, "relative_strength": -4.756175, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -7.169265, "energy": 15.619007, "activity_lines": [ 2.515333, 2.562909, 2.529769, 2.505424 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }