{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9edff56f-0c19-4c87-8e3e-a3309e6a3464", "symbol": "PANEL", "name": "PANEL_PANELESMATIC SOLUTIONS", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 94.703, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -26.284, "architecture_energy": 12.871, "architecture_maturity": 58.522, "architecture_confidence": 56.897, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.93, "rotation_up": 24.99, "upward_expansion": 18.71, "deceleration": 39.3, "rotation_down": 27.75, "downward_expansion": 52.71 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.204, 1.199636, 1.203089, 1.212646 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 1.22, "trend_reference": 1.235667, "distance_from_trend": -0.012679, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.348139, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.095049, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -17.892163, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.073479, "excess_performance": -0.265804, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.012679, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.042037, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.095049, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.018224, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.178922, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002897, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.073479, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.560896, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 443400, "relative_activity": 1.693853, "balance": 1.560896, "dry_up": 1.047389, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.042245, "annualized_volatility": 0.13984, "from_high_reference": -0.19303, "from_low_reference": 0.137093 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.235667, "fair_value_reference": 1.348139, "structural_low": 1.072911, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.00813, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.023503, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.016949, "worst_return": -0.024793, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.024764, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.122119, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.024764, "worst_return": -0.024764, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, 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28.151347, "activity_lines": [ 1.196667, 1.199273, 1.206552, 1.225973 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.18, "volume": 274800, "typical_volume": 258360.0, "trend": 1.254804, "fair_value": 1.351507, "relative_strength": -22.650796, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.596022, "energy": 26.996898, "activity_lines": [ 1.192667, 1.195091, 1.20326, 1.220623 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.2, "volume": 208100, "typical_volume": 256670.0, "trend": 1.247336, "fair_value": 1.350314, "relative_strength": -21.238118, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.218317, "energy": 20.429106, "activity_lines": [ 1.195333, 1.195091, 1.202291, 1.217087 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.2, "volume": 170400, "typical_volume": 251590.0, "trend": 1.241494, "fair_value": 1.34914, "relative_strength": -20.033066, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.754891, "energy": 19.767501, "activity_lines": [ 1.196, 1.195273, 1.201692, 1.214033 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.22, "volume": 443400, "typical_volume": 261770.0, "trend": 1.235667, "fair_value": 1.348139, "relative_strength": -17.892163, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -26.283883, "energy": 12.871191, "activity_lines": [ 1.204, 1.199636, 1.203089, 1.212646 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }