{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9ee1e77e-976f-4731-8179-de3a26edcc35", "symbol": "EXPO", "name": "Exponent Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 58.933, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 6.906, "architecture_energy": 20.355, "architecture_maturity": 9.014, "architecture_confidence": 54.378, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.85, "rotation_up": 44.57, "upward_expansion": 35.98, "deceleration": 35.19, "rotation_down": 14.8, "downward_expansion": 41.98 }, "activity_lines": [ 64.902, 63.028, 61.688529, 62.772055 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 66.79, "trend_reference": 64.984923, "distance_from_trend": 0.027777, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 79.386368, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.158672, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -13.309655, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.15495, "excess_performance": -0.342404, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.027777, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.046452, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.158672, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.093984, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.133097, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.145698, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.15495, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.565046, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2070918, "relative_activity": 0.782565, "balance": 1.565046, "dry_up": 1.062653, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.075482, "annualized_volatility": 0.414418, "from_high_reference": -0.177224, "from_low_reference": 0.293336 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 64.984923, "fair_value_reference": 79.386368, "structural_low": 51.641664, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.00987, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.01885, "regime_survival": 0.357143, "best_return": 0.151409, "worst_return": -0.165309, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.040025, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.024291, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.153766, "worst_return": -0.191168, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.155598, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.297629, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.087408, "worst_return": -0.224432, "sufficient": true }, { 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"Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.584719, "energy": 19.730937, "activity_lines": [ 60.518, 59.419721, 60.859395, 63.035756 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 62.88, "volume": 2328468, "typical_volume": 2605985.1, "trend": 65.61726, "fair_value": 79.758147, "relative_strength": -16.479324, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -28.90929, "energy": 20.679856, "activity_lines": [ 61.619333, 60.168005, 60.856217, 62.840964 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 61.44, "volume": 3035574, "typical_volume": 2637769.45, "trend": 65.309378, "fair_value": 79.605213, "relative_strength": -16.535137, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -25.895937, "energy": 18.287271, "activity_lines": [ 61.854, 60.622153, 60.759768, 62.571464 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 66.85, "volume": 3813526, "typical_volume": 2710644.95, "trend": 65.221452, "fair_value": 79.4923, "relative_strength": -9.285245, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 6.655747, "energy": 16.166531, "activity_lines": [ 63.588667, 61.915791, 61.226597, 62.670859 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 66.79, "volume": 2070918, "typical_volume": 2646322.05, "trend": 64.984923, "fair_value": 79.386368, "relative_strength": -13.309655, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 6.905846, "energy": 20.354916, "activity_lines": [ 64.902, 63.028, 61.688529, 62.772055 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }