{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9ee5098d-3b32-44ec-8b10-4db9c704f5c7", "symbol": "GEOS", "name": "Golden Energy Offshore Services ASA", "exchange": "OSL", "country": "NO", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "OSEBX.OL", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.345, "architecture_energy": 81.249, "architecture_maturity": 26.296, "architecture_confidence": 80.216, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.89, "rotation_up": 8.29, "upward_expansion": 19.76, "deceleration": 37.34, "rotation_down": 73.31, "downward_expansion": 90.76 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.034286, 7.59018, 8.396731, 8.565177 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 7.05, "trend_reference": 8.583912, "distance_from_trend": -0.178696, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 20.028606, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.648003, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -46.912633, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.160714, "excess_performance": -0.285708, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.178696, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.103445, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.648003, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.071848, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.469126, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.009539, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.160714, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.065371, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 675355, "relative_activity": 3.658608, "balance": 2.065371, "dry_up": 1.609805, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.113218, "annualized_volatility": 0.680499, "from_high_reference": -0.675115, "from_low_reference": 0.167219 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.583912, "fair_value_reference": 20.028606, "structural_low": 6.428571, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.092624, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.091894, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.047619, "worst_return": -0.119231, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.253193, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.296027, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.038462, "worst_return": -0.467925, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.383054, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.526801, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.300699, "worst_return": -0.465409, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, 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Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.0525, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.041899, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.037736, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.317818, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.02809, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.047059, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.130435, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.01309, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.044444, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 20.203102, "volume": 66569, "typical_volume": 49779.95, "trend": 22.134994, "fair_value": 22.067445, "relative_strength": -24.675358, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -16.054236, 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"typical_volume": 147371.65, "trend": 8.658341, "fair_value": 20.405535, "relative_strength": -50.105857, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -44.063741, "energy": 47.493828, "activity_lines": [ 8.248835, 9.086067, 9.14379, 8.982706 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 6.621428, "volume": 22046, "typical_volume": 146981.5, "trend": 8.625722, "fair_value": 20.309621, "relative_strength": -51.947794, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -47.827619, "energy": 58.383234, "activity_lines": [ 7.47463, 8.578686, 8.909592, 8.851292 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.264286, "volume": 415911, "typical_volume": 165971.25, "trend": 8.604531, "fair_value": 20.216431, "relative_strength": -47.380951, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -36.845758, "energy": 60.900384, "activity_lines": [ 7.166615, 8.229617, 8.744611, 8.763457 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.071429, "volume": 75326, "typical_volume": 155906.75, "trend": 8.590246, "fair_value": 20.113853, "relative_strength": -47.834957, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -36.62706, "energy": 75.541799, "activity_lines": [ 6.994286, 7.880678, 8.566862, 8.664548 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.05, "volume": 675355, "typical_volume": 184593.45, "trend": 8.583912, "fair_value": 20.028606, "relative_strength": -46.912633, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.345316, "energy": 81.249361, "activity_lines": [ 7.034286, 7.59018, 8.396731, 8.565177 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }