{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9ee65dad-b162-4e03-9270-456edf5dc81a", "symbol": "TECW", "name": "State Street SPDR MSCI World Technology UCITS ETF USD Acc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 61.268, "architecture_energy": 36.139, "architecture_maturity": 72.375, "architecture_confidence": 94.389, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.68, "rotation_up": 36.38, "upward_expansion": 59.67, "deceleration": 88.26, "rotation_down": 27.42, "downward_expansion": 21.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 194.710665, 195.058272, 192.7385, 185.497796 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 203.100006, "trend_reference": 176.514167, "distance_from_trend": 0.150616, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 138.850097, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.462729, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 10.246729, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.302424, "excess_performance": 0.251189, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.150616, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.062261, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.462729, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.039736, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.102467, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.016279, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.302424, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.796492, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7292, "relative_activity": 1.124606, "balance": 1.796492, "dry_up": 1.347499, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.042795, "annualized_volatility": 0.241279, "from_high_reference": -0.00636, "from_low_reference": 0.388813 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 176.514167, "fair_value_reference": 138.850097, "structural_low": 146.240005, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.016368, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.020125, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.097822, "worst_return": -0.028359, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.087172, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.068017, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.255143, "worst_return": -0.051412, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.175726, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.132767, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.25622, "worst_return": -0.258333, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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{ "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.005333, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.058096, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.088931, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.075655, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.002524, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": 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196.964669, 197.208638, 188.029739, 180.51541 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 189.259995, "volume": 5567, "typical_volume": 6391.85, "trend": 173.473167, "fair_value": 136.922821, "relative_strength": 6.176706, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.471834, "energy": 40.823346, "activity_lines": [ 194.269667, 195.962364, 189.062667, 181.589442 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 193.179993, "volume": 6173, "typical_volume": 6228.95, "trend": 174.432501, "fair_value": 137.539103, "relative_strength": 6.805827, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.793345, "energy": 36.413999, "activity_lines": [ 193.319997, 195.359726, 190.314357, 182.86085 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 187.429993, "volume": 15917, "typical_volume": 6490.25, "trend": 175.224834, "fair_value": 138.133654, "relative_strength": 2.271313, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.325493, "energy": 25.327752, "activity_lines": [ 191.186662, 193.716907, 190.854999, 183.699398 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 203.100006, "volume": 7292, "typical_volume": 6484.05, "trend": 176.514167, "fair_value": 138.850097, "relative_strength": 10.246729, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.268246, "energy": 36.139235, "activity_lines": [ 194.710665, 195.058272, 192.7385, 185.497796 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }