{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9eebd3f2-c1c8-4f6c-aa90-cb57a4b9bf04", "symbol": "603015", "name": "Ningbo Techmation Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.372, "architecture_energy": 70.091, "architecture_maturity": 35.042, "architecture_confidence": 83.889, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.91, "rotation_up": 10.39, "upward_expansion": 15.53, "deceleration": 38.02, "rotation_down": 70.92, "downward_expansion": 88.86 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.097333, 10.685435, 11.314366, 11.828947 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 10.67, "trend_reference": 12.748279, "distance_from_trend": -0.163024, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.515519, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.014691, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.082863, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.280027, "excess_performance": -0.236823, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.163024, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.024738, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.014691, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.203205, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.140829, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.035501, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.280027, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.957895, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 24663128, "relative_activity": 0.778025, "balance": 0.957895, "dry_up": 0.794295, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.123773, "annualized_volatility": 0.500313, "from_high_reference": -0.43305, "from_low_reference": 0.271752 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.748279, "fair_value_reference": 10.515519, "structural_low": 8.39, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.064706, "positive_rate": 0.578947, "directional_follow_through": 0.421053, "median_excess_return": 0.006792, "regime_survival": 0.736842, "best_return": 0.422414, "worst_return": -0.251244, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.101499, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": 0.037749, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.607831, "worst_return": -0.167414, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.338658, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.392386, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.764963, "worst_return": 0.009251, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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53.028358, "activity_lines": [ 11.663333, 11.973703, 12.140526, 12.605837 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 9.95, "volume": 17063300, "typical_volume": 32907475.3, "trend": 13.011279, "fair_value": 10.509959, "relative_strength": -17.56979, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.394626, "energy": 72.403444, "activity_lines": [ 10.968, 11.573488, 11.899629, 12.402399 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.03, "volume": 29307195, "typical_volume": 32125067.85, "trend": 12.896279, "fair_value": 10.503411, "relative_strength": -25.628844, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.77149, "energy": 83.636026, "activity_lines": [ 10.187333, 11.053102, 11.595541, 12.145543 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.13, "volume": 29681888, "typical_volume": 31926575.35, "trend": 12.810946, "fair_value": 10.506545, "relative_strength": -16.513293, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.877402, "energy": 76.838592, "activity_lines": [ 9.988, 10.797631, 11.420501, 11.967073 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.67, "volume": 24663128, "typical_volume": 31699666.85, "trend": 12.748279, "fair_value": 10.515519, "relative_strength": -14.082863, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.371985, "energy": 70.090815, "activity_lines": [ 10.097333, 10.685435, 11.314366, 11.828947 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }