{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9ef216e0-4fc9-4f66-b7c4-7aac162c7237", "symbol": "FBTC", "name": "Fidelity Advantage Bitcoin ETFTM", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -43.025, "architecture_energy": 31.953, "architecture_maturity": 26.88, "architecture_confidence": 68.205, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.39, "rotation_up": 25.17, "upward_expansion": 15.8, "deceleration": 65.5, "rotation_down": 34.27, "downward_expansion": 61.13 }, "activity_lines": [ 29.539334, 29.348909, 30.600762, 31.158129 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 29.77, "trend_reference": 32.303, "distance_from_trend": -0.078414, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 34.307821, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.132268, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -32.56296, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.055221, "excess_performance": -0.175642, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.078414, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.113813, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.132268, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.231355, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.32563, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.050847, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.055221, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.418825, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 151800, "relative_activity": 0.632816, "balance": 0.418825, "dry_up": 1.014257, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.062557, "annualized_volatility": 0.358722, "from_high_reference": -0.486724, "from_low_reference": 0.096501 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 32.303, "fair_value_reference": 34.307821, "structural_low": 27.15, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.008816, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": 0.009579, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.135364, "worst_return": -0.105064, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.020191, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.007424, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.177347, "worst_return": -0.232227, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.180118, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.065105, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.703892, "worst_return": -0.395986, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 1.283767, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 1.117459, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.673435, "worst_return": 0.894099, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.044028, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.01838, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.149389, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.011368, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.017035, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.045003, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.059088, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.051134, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.141056, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.072593, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.11324, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.071169, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.075479, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.026906, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 11.8, "volume": 35800, "typical_volume": 32580.0, "trend": 12.238, "fair_value": 12.631444, "relative_strength": 11.315325, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 3.399169, "energy": 10.363997, "activity_lines": [ 12.679333, 12.936182, 12.822048, 12.66271 ] }, { "date": "2023-08-25", "close": 11.82, "volume": 23600, "typical_volume": 32760.0, "trend": 12.28, "fair_value": 12.622527, "relative_strength": 10.868172, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -8.812542, "energy": 20.180793, "activity_lines": [ 12.334667, 12.722182, 12.728143, 12.635742 ] }, { "date": "2023-09-01", "close": 11.68, "volume": 82600, "typical_volume": 35210.0, "trend": 12.315667, "fair_value": 12.612283, "relative_strength": 5.36907, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.25342, "energy": 35.986544, "activity_lines": [ 12.037333, 12.480182, 12.626, 12.597032 ] }, { "date": "2023-09-08", "close": 11.84, "volume": 140900, "typical_volume": 41065.0, "trend": 12.387333, "fair_value": 12.603978, "relative_strength": 8.880807, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -33.779222, "energy": 49.627548, "activity_lines": [ 11.880667, 12.306, 12.548429, 12.566344 ] }, { "date": "2023-09-15", "close": 11.97, "volume": 21200, "typical_volume": 40940.0, "trend": 12.409667, "fair_value": 12.597234, "relative_strength": 6.687883, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.634196, "energy": 54.78755, "activity_lines": [ 11.846, 12.185455, 12.485905, 12.539419 ] }, { "date": "2023-09-22", "close": 11.97, "volume": 17400, "typical_volume": 40455.0, "trend": 12.452667, "fair_value": 12.590632, "relative_strength": 10.705088, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -33.33635, "energy": 53.814426, "activity_lines": [ 11.895333, 12.091273, 12.429857, 12.511054 ] }, { "date": "2023-09-29", "close": 12.25, "volume": 23700, "typical_volume": 40645.0, "trend": 12.521, "fair_value": 12.587083, "relative_strength": 14.103533, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.560287, "energy": 37.270588, "activity_lines": [ 12.026667, 12.072182, 12.407, 12.497978 ] }, { "date": "2023-10-06", "close": 12.74, "volume": 25600, "typical_volume": 41280.0, "trend": 12.633667, "fair_value": 12.58866, "relative_strength": 19.749977, "stage": 2, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -25.603232, "energy": 15.312587, "activity_lines": [ 12.292667, 12.16, 12.42981, 12.512108 ] }, { "date": "2023-10-13", "close": 12.19, "volume": 25800, "typical_volume": 41855.0, "trend": 12.622, "fair_value": 12.584592, "relative_strength": 12.775509, "stage": 2, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.338416, "energy": 19.471178, "activity_lines": [ 12.304667, 12.152364, 12.397619, 12.483484 ] }, { "date": "2023-10-20", "close": 13.71, 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"activity_lines": [ 28.776666, 30.317091, 31.645428, 32.391505 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 29.76, "volume": 332500, "typical_volume": 264620.0, "trend": 33.739667, "fair_value": 33.886923, "relative_strength": -35.013564, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.271902, "energy": 65.413308, "activity_lines": [ 29.138666, 29.944182, 31.446619, 32.110731 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 29.59, "volume": 328400, "typical_volume": 259700.0, "trend": 33.393, "fair_value": 33.991795, "relative_strength": -34.229682, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.666433, "energy": 50.217708, "activity_lines": [ 29.306, 29.637273, 31.235381, 31.843011 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 29.780001, "volume": 216700, "typical_volume": 248220.0, "trend": 33.075, "fair_value": 34.099423, "relative_strength": -32.914857, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.815966, "energy": 37.291646, "activity_lines": [ 29.514667, 29.483273, 31.041857, 31.609914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 28.99, "volume": 276300, "typical_volume": 247395.0, "trend": 32.687667, "fair_value": 34.201795, "relative_strength": -33.323326, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.487126, "energy": 35.94048, "activity_lines": [ 29.434, 29.295636, 30.776524, 31.346366 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 29.77, "volume": 151800, "typical_volume": 239880.0, "trend": 32.303, "fair_value": 34.307821, "relative_strength": -32.56296, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.024796, "energy": 31.953086, "activity_lines": [ 29.539334, 29.348909, 30.600762, 31.158129 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }